After easily defeating Manchester City, Manchester United's next match will be of special significance. It is an opportunity for them to prove to skeptics that victory in the derby is not just a moment of temporary explosion.
Michael Carrick called the victory over Man City at Old Trafford a "dream start". His new era of interim spell at Man United opened with a 2-0 victory over Man City, but that description seems to still not fully reflect what happened on the field.
It has been a long time since Man United has been able to overwhelm their city rivals in such a way, perhaps since before Pep Guardiola took over Man City in 2016. The score was only 2-0, but the general feeling is that the gap should have been much larger.
Man United had 3 goals disallowed due to a close offside, two shots hitting the goal and forcing Gianluigi Donnarumma to make up to five saves. This is the highest number that the Italian goalkeeper has ever faced in a match for Man City.
Of course, the unrecognized goals did not appear in Man United's expected goal difference (xG) of 2.27. However, they still clearly reflected the game and attacking momentum that the home team created, showing a near-complete superiority.
Even without considering those situations, the xG difference between the two teams is still among Man City's worst in the Guardiola era. The blue team only created 0.45 xG, which means a difference of up to 1.82 - the fourth largest number they have ever suffered in the Premier League under the Spanish strategist.
Since 2016, only 3 matches have seen Man City be overwhelmed by opponents with more opportunities than that. 1-2 defeat to Chelsea in 2020, 0-2 defeat to Liverpool at the end of 2024 and 2-5 defeat to Leicester City in 2020.
The noteworthy point is that in those matches, City's opponents were awarded penalties or played with more players. Against Man United, no. Carrick did not have a numerical advantage, his team also did not score from the 11m spot. Man United simply defended disciplinedly and counter-attacked sharply to the point of making Man City completely helpless.
Some City fans may cite the fact that Guardiola was forced to use patchwork defense, but their star-studded attack also played no less faintly. Man United completely strangled the attacking spearheads and continuously punished the gap behind the rising defense.
In terms of tactics, Carrick has not invented anything new. His approach is familiar in recent derby matches. The "Red Devils" give the ball control to City, patiently endure the game and then launch fast counter-attacks.
Before this match, Man United only controlled the ball on average 37.7% each time they faced Guardiola's Man City. Under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, that number was even lower (36.4%), but that strategy once helped Man United win 4 derbies - the best record since the Sir Alex Ferguson era.
Against The Citizens, Man United's ball possession rate was only 31.8%. The last time they held the ball less in a Premier League match was in March 2024, also against Man City. At Old Trafford, this is their fourth lowest ball possession rate since the 2004-2005 season.
However, unlike many times before, giving up the ball this time does not mean being passive. Man United controlled the match in their own way - sure, cold and calculating. The remaining issue is whether they can maintain that or not.
The upcoming match against Arsenal is therefore more meaningful than 3 points. It will show that Man United is truly entering a period of revival, or the victory over Man City is simply a rare moment of brilliance in the midst of an unstable season.
