Overview
The Netherlands' hopes of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup have been delayed, although the victory over Poland helped Oranje consolidate their top position before the final match.
However, Ronald Koeman's side had a challenging 90 minutes in Warsaw. Jakub Kaminski opened the scoring for Poland with only 2 minutes left in the first half. Memphis Depay was lucky to bring the equalizer 1-1 in the second minute of the second half for the Netherlands.
This draw means that in theory, the Netherlands could still be pushed down to second place. But for that scenario to happen, a series of miracles must appear at the same time, because Oranje is 3 points ahead of Poland.
Not only did they need to lose to Lithuania at home, the Netherlands also had to witness Poland create a breakthrough in goal difference of up to 13 goals in the match against Malta. Therefore, Dutch fans can be completely assured before the final match.
Except for the penalty shootout defeat against Spain in the UEFA Nations League, Koeman's side have gone more than a year without a win in any match. From October 2023 to now, the team that reached the 2010 World Cup final is still unbeaten at home.
It is no surprise that Lithuania have just suffered their most recent home defeat, when they lost to Poland more than a month ago. That defeat marked the Tricolours' fourth defeat in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.
There are still no big wins after 7 matches and with only one final match left, Edgaras Jankauskas's team has almost decided its own fate. They will definitely be at the bottom of the table unless a miracle occurs in Amsterdam.
Lithuania have only won 3 points - 2 points less than Malta - so to avoid finishing at the bottom of the table, they have to defeat the Netherlands and hope Poland will overcome Malta.
However, the upcoming developments may not be too important for Jankauskas and his team. They have extended their winless streak to 16 matches in all competitions after a 0-0 draw with Israel.
Lithuania created many difficulties for the Netherlands in the first leg in September, but Oranje still won 3-2. To date, Tricolours are still waiting for their first time participating in a major tournament as an independent country.
Personnel situation
Jan Paul van Hecke of Brighton had a forgettable evening in the draw between the Netherlands and Poland. The centre-back came on in the 74th minute and was sent off, leading to a suspension just a few seconds before the game ended.
In addition to that unforced absence, Ronald Koeman is likely to keep most of his squad for the away trip to Lithuania, although the attack could see some changes.
Tijjani Reijnders is highly appreciated for the No. 10 position, replacing Justin Kluivert, while Xavi Simons of Tottenham Hotspur could also be promoted to start in place of Donyell Malen.
In defense, Matthijs de Ligt is a strong candidate to pair Virgil van Dijk in the center of the defense.
On the other side, Lithuania also suffered losses in defense when Edvinas Girdvainis was suspended due to receiving a second yellow card.
The recent match against Israel was a historic milestone for the Lithuania team, when their captain Fedor Cernych made his 102nd appearance. He became the most capped male player of all time for this national team.
In Amsterdam, the 34-year-old player is expected to continue leading the attack, while Torino's young talent Gvidas Gineitis will once again take charge of the midfield.
Expected lineup:
Netherlands: Verbruggen, Timber, De Ligt, Van Dijk, Van de Ven, Gravenberch, De Jong, Simons, Reijnders, Gakpo, Depay.
Poland: Svedkauskaskas, tutyskinas, Armalas, Utkus, Sirvys, Gineitis,vorobjovas, Golubickas, Lasickas, Cernych, Paulauskas.
The match between the Netherlands and Lithuania takes place at 2:45 am on October 18 (Vietnam time).
