Overview
Scott Parker's Burnley has gone through a period of serious decline with a 7-game losing streak lasting throughout November and most of December. However, the recent 2 draws have brought positive signals, giving the club more grounds to believe in the possibility of improvement in the second leg.
After a 1-1 draw against Bournemouth on December 20, Burnley continued to win another point with a 0-0 draw against Everton last weekend. This is also the first time they have kept a clean sheet after 10 matches, showing that adjustments in defense are starting to be effective.
However, Burnley is still 19th with 12 points. The recent draw helped Parker's team narrow the gap with Nottingham Forest (ranked 17th) to 5 points, but the relegation race still requires a clearer breakthrough, especially in attacking ability.
In fact, Burnley needs to solve the finishing problem to take advantage of opportunities. In the match against Bournemouth, they had to wait until the 86th minute to have the first shot on target. In the confrontation with Everton, Burnley launched 16 shots but could not force Jordan Pickford to work significantly. If they want to aim for their first victory since the 3-2 victory over Wolves in October, they must improve the quality of opportunities and efficiency in the penalty area.
In the opposite direction, Eddie Howe's Newcastle can create quality matches when in good condition, but stability is a problem throughout the 2025-2026 season. The away team entered this match with a record of only winning one of their last 5 matches (2 defeats, 2 draws). The 0-1 defeat to Manchester United on Boxing Day further extended the Premier League winning streak to 3 matches.
That result caused Newcastle to drop to 14th place with 23 points, 10 points ahead of the bottom group but 9 points behind the leading group when the season entered the mid-season. However, Newcastle still has reason to see this away trip as an opportunity to return to the race, as they once defeated Burnley 2-1 at St James' Park on December 6.
Another motivation is the goal of closing the year 2025 in the top half of the table. Newcastle is closely following Fulham (10th place), Crystal Palace (9th place) and Brentford (8th place). However, the biggest obstacle is still away form. They have only won once on the opponent's field since the beginning of the season.
Therefore, this could be a match where the "door" for Burnley comes from Newcastle's instability when away from home, while the "door" for Newcastle lies in the ability to take advantage of Burnley's limitations in attack. The team that solves the decisive situations better in the last 1/3 of the field will have a real advantage.
Personnel situation
Burnley's defense is under double impact from injuries and international obligations. Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts and Axel Tuanzebe are definitely absent, while two center-backs Maxime Esteve and Joe Worrall are still uncertain about their chances of playing.
In that context, Burnley is likely to continue to operate a three-center-back system with Josh Laurent, Hjalmar Ekdal and Bashir Humphreys. The two wings are expected to be played by Kyle Walker and Lucas Pires as full-backs.
In midfield, Burnley was forced to adjust after Josh Cullen suffered a knee injury in the match against Everton. The replacement plan is predicted to be Florentino Luis playing alongside Lesley Ugochukwu, in order to maintain ball recovery and control of midfield space.
On the other side, Newcastle is even more heavily damaged in defense when Dan Burn, Emil Krafth, Jamaal Lascelles, Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman and Tino Livramento are all absent due to injury. Although expecting most of the key players to return in January, Eddie Howe is likely to have to use Lewis Miley as an option to patch the right-back position, playing alongside Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schar and Lewis Hall to complete the temporary defense.
Expected lineup:
Dubravka, Laurent, Ekdal, Humphreys, Walker, Ugochukwu, Florentino, Pires, Edwards, Broja, Bruun Larsen.
Ramsdale, Miley, Thiaw, Schar, Hall, Guimaraes, Tonali, Ramsey, Murphy, Woltemade, Gordon.
The match between Burnley and Newcastle takes place at 2:30 AM on December 31 (Vietnam time).
