Opta's supercomputer has recently simulated 10,000 Premier League games and given the championship ratings of 20 teams. The top spot is still defending champion Manchester City (82.2%). This result is not surprising as Pep Guardiola's team has won the championship in the last 4 seasons - a record that no English team has ever achieved.
This figure is lower than their chances of winning the Premier League at the start of the 2023-24 season. At that time, the figure was 90.2%.
Second place is Arsenal with 12.2%. Last season, Opta rated the Gunners as having only a 4.1% chance but now they have increased significantly.
Current predictions show Arsenal have a 61% chance of finishing in the top two. The chance of entering the top 4 and qualifying for the UEFA Champions League is up to 95.7%. As for Man City, the rate of them in the top 4 is 99.9% - almost absolute.
Liverpool became the third leading candidate for the Premier League title with 5.1%, higher than at the same time last season (3.5%). In fact, The Kop topped the Premier League rankings last season for 87 days, more than champions Man City (78) and Arsenal (76), but unfortunately could not maintain until the end of the match.
These predictions are based on the supercomputer data collected by Opta as of August 12. These figures will change throughout the season based on actual data.
Of the Opta supercomputer's predictions for the 2024-2025 Premier League, only five clubs are likely to win the championship: Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle, Man United, Tottenham and Aston Villa.
Chelsea have a new coach, Enzo Maresca, this season. They have been out of the top four for the past two seasons but Opta predicts the Blues have a 31.6% chance of qualifying for next season's Champions League.
Newcastle have a 26.6% chance of returning to the top flight in Europe, after a struggling season to balance their busy schedule and many long-term injuries.
Both Tottenham and Man United fell out of the top 4 last season. This season, Spurs are predicted to have a 17.5% chance of entering the top 4, just slightly lower than Man United's 18.9%. The other three teams that are likely to qualify for the Champions League are Aston Villa (7.3%), Crystal Palace (5.4%) and West Ham (2.2%).
