A 2017 study by Sky Sports and Opta found that in more than 2,700 Premier League matches where a team had a 2-0 lead, 90% of teams went on to win, with just 7.4% ending in a draw and 2.6% of teams coming back from behind. However, the 2024-25 Premier League season has seen the opposite happen, with teams coming back from 2-0 down to draw 17.5% of the time.
Everton have twice led 2-0 in September only to lose 2-3, and this is not just a few teams. It is not just the 2-goal difference, the number of matches with last-minute goals has also increased significantly. In round 9 of the Premier League, there were 5 matches that ended with the winning goal scored after the 90th minute, breaking the record for the most late goals in the history of the tournament.
A key factor is believed to be the increasingly balanced competition in the Premier League. Brighton manager Fabian Hurzeler said that not only the top teams, but also the bottom teams are of high quality and have the ability to score late in the game.
Even the bench players for teams like Southampton have international experience, with Jan Bednarek, Yukinari Sugawara and Joe Aribo all key players in their national teams. Mid-table Premier League sides have a much better squad than their counterparts in Europe’s top five leagues.
In addition, the change in the number of players allowed to be substituted per match, from 3 to 5 in the 2022-2023 season, has given teams more strength to come back from behind. This substitution brings new energy and can change the momentum of the match.
In addition, Premier League players are not only technically superior but also physically superior. Statistics have shown that the speed of the game and their physical fitness have increased significantly over the past 5-10 years, allowing teams to regain control even when they are behind.
Another notable aspect is the effective playing time. The Premier League currently has the highest average playing time per game of any major European league. In recent years, referees have cracked down on time-wasting behaviour, requiring players to continue playing and ensuring that there is a reasonable amount of stoppage time. This is in stark contrast to Serie A, where teams can easily slow down the pace of the game to gain a lead in the final minutes.
Chelsea coach Enzo Maresca once emphasized that English football culture makes matches more passionate. While in Italy, players can use tricks to prolong the game, in England, fans always expect the match to maintain its tempo until the last minute.
Finally, the constant sell-out of tickets in the Premier League also contributes to the exciting atmosphere. Unlike some other European leagues, matches in England are often packed with spectators, especially when the home team is behind, the cheers of the fans will be a strong motivation for the home team to play more fiercely and have a chance to come back.
Combined with that is a change in the approach of coaches, as they increasingly insist on playing from the back, leading to more mistakes in the build-up phase in the final minutes.
