Unprecedented challenges
According to an analysis by economic experts, the 46% tax rate applied by the US to Vietnam is equivalent to half of the total 90% trade barrier calculated by the US, based on the bilateral trade deficit ratio between the two countries. Not only at taxes, the new US policy also includes non-tax factors such as technical standards, customs, currency manipulation, etc.
This is the first time Vietnam has been subject to the highest tax rate in such a comprehensive adjustment policy. The impact of the policy is not simply increased costs, but also towards changing the structure of the global supply chain in at least the next 5 years.
Deep impact on the economy and businesses
If the export turnover to the US remains at about 120 billion USD/year, then with the new tax rate, Vietnam may have to bear a burden of up to 55 billion USD - equivalent to about 12% of GDP in 2024. This is especially worrying for key export industries such as textiles, electronics, steel - industries that already have thin profit margins.
Vietnamese goods will become much less attractive than those of competing countries. Businesses are forced to recalculate their export strategies, and may even have to withdraw from the US market without appropriate support.
Even FDI inflows could be affected. Investors who intend to invest newly in Vietnam will be forced to observe more, causing the investment environment to face short-term uncertainty.
Need for urgent dialogue and support policies
In the immediate future, Vietnam has taken positive steps such as issuing Decree 73 dated March 31, 2025, adjusting preferential import tax rates for goods from the US such as liquefied gasoline, Pethanol, cars, agricultural products, etc.
The government needs to urgently establish a direct dialogue channel with the US to clarify the basis for tax calculation, find a negotiation mechanism or roadmap for tax reduction. This content can be included in the upcoming working program of Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc in the US.
In addition, to reduce negative impacts, the Government can consider support packages for businesses, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs): postponing and extending value added tax and corporate income tax, granting short-term preferential credit - similar to the policy Korea effectively applied in 1997.
At risk - the time to restructure
Although difficulties are present, this is also an opportunity for Vietnam to transform.
It is time for Vietnam to escape the position of a low-cost processing country, dependent on a few markets. This challenge forces us to restructure the growth model, invest in technology, develop our own brands and build a domestic supply chain with higher autonomy.
New-generation free trade agreements such as EVFTA and CPTPP are opening up many directions. In 2024 alone, exports to the EU will increase by 20% - demonstrating the potential of non-traditional markets if they know how to exploit it.
The domestic market with a scale of more than 100 million people is also an unused "gold mine". Promoting domestic consumption, developing Vietnamese brands and creating trust among consumers will be a strategic support for the next growth period.
In short, the history of the world economy has proven: Big shocks are often the premise of a spectacular recovery. Japan in the 1980s, South Korea after the Asian financial crisis, or China after trade pressures from the West - all took advantage of adversity to accelerate.
Vietnam is also facing such a time. If there is consensus from the State, businesses and the whole society, we can completely turn risks into opportunities, challenges into motivations to enter a new era of development - based on science, technology, quality and innovation.
