Contrary to predictions about positive trading after the upgrade day, foreign investors showed high caution. In the trading session on September 23, this group net sold more than 1,000 billion VND, the highest in the past three weeks. Disbursement pressure focused on leading banking codes such as VPB, ACB, TCB and HDB. In the opposite direction, the disbursed value was less than 1,500 billion VND, the lowest in the past month.
Even in the session on September 21, the official upgrade day, along with generally not very positive developments, foreign investors also sharply reduced buying and selling transactions and returned to a net selling position of nearly 700 billion VND with the focus being on selling the pair of large-cap stocks VIC-VHM.
From the beginning of 2026 to now, foreign capital flows continue to be greatly affected by external factors and global capital allocation strategies, thereby becoming a notable resistance when net selling nearly 93,000 billion VND on HOSE after 8 months, 60% higher than the same period last year. This trend extends the net selling momentum from previous years, in the context that the ownership ratio of foreign investors across the market has decreased by more than 4 percentage points since 2019.
Although foreign investors net sold strongly and proprietary trading also often leaned towards this state, VN-Index still maintained the 1,800 - 1,900 point range, approaching the historical peak. This shows that domestic investors have absorbed significant supply from the above two groups and become the main driving force helping the market maintain its current level.
The stock market upgrade process is expected to become an important variable for the cash flow balance in the coming months. This may be the factor that creates the most significant change for foreign capital in the remainder of this year. However, cash flow will not appear at the same time but will be allocated through many reviews, so the positive impact may last until 2027.
The difficult global macroeconomic context also explains the wave of capital withdrawal from foreign investors. Historical analysis shows that in order for emerging or nascent markets to receive massive active capital flows, the world economy must grow rapidly on a large scale with the leadership of emerging markets, while the USD must weaken.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Senior Director of Financial Analysis Division of DG Capital, said that the risk still lies in the interest rate and yield environment in the US, the strength of the USD as well as geopolitical shocks. If US yields continue to increase or global risk appetite declines, capital flows into emerging markets may continue to be under pressure, delaying the reversal process of foreign capital flows in Vietnam. The market upgrade event only brings relatively passive capital flows. This amount of capital is not enough to immediately reverse the general psychology.
It is estimated that passive capital flows can disburse 2.2 - 2.4 billion USD in the next year, with about 200 - 300 million USD from September 21 and most of the remaining capital flows will arrive in 2027. Active capital flows are also expected to increase after passive cash flows are activated.
Thus, not many expectations are placed on the upgrade scenario immediately creating a strong reversal of foreign investors in the last months of the year. Instead, selling pressure may continue to narrow, gradually shifting to a balanced state or selective net buying, while a clearer impact is expected from 2027.
