After the first post-upgrade session under strong pressure, the market recovered in the session on September 22 when the pillar stock group simultaneously increased in price. However, what is noteworthy is that the market's liquidity decreased quite sharply. Liquidity in yesterday's trading session on all 3 exchanges reached about 14,025 billion VND, down nearly 24% compared to the level of 18,453 billion VND of the session on September 21. This shows that although the index recovered strongly, cash flow into the market showed signs of being more cautious than the previous session.
After interest rates at banks and in the interbank market began to increase, the impact of this trend is increasingly evident in the stock market, especially through the sharp drop in liquidity. The Vietnamese stock market once experienced a period of excitement in both points and liquidity at this time a year ago. The matched order value on HOSE usually reached 30,000-40,000 billion VND per session, even some sessions reached 50,000-60,000 billion VND. However, the current picture has changed significantly.
The weakening of cash flow is taking place in the context of the long-term credit growth cycle approaching its final stage, while interest rate pressure is increasingly high both domestically and internationally. The impact of interest rates does not stop at stocks but also spreads to other asset markets.
Notably, when the pressures formed from the domestic credit cycle have not cooled down, the international environment has appeared more unfavorable factors, making interest rate prospects in the last months of the year more difficult.
Investors are beginning to see a very noteworthy reverse wind, which is the increase in interest rates globally. The Fed has raised interest rates again in the context of inflation continuing to stay above the target level of 2%. Along with that, many major central banks and countries in the region have also implemented interest rate hikes, creating more pressure on the international monetary environment.
This change makes the domestic interest rate problem more complicated. While the room to continue monetary easing has narrowed after a long credit growth cycle, the trend of increasing international interest rates is creating more pressure from outside, making the expectation of early interest rates stabilizing or decreasing more fragile.
According to the assessment of analysts from ACBS Securities Company, for Vietnam, the most notable impact from the Fed's move lies in the USD - VND interest rate difference and exchange rate pressure. When the Fed maintains a tight monetary policy, the USD - VND interest rate difference increase may make it more difficult to sharply lower domestic interest rates.
The advantage is that the short-term liquidity of the banking system has improved. However, the problem of medium and long-term capital sources has not been completely solved. ACBS believes that the basic scenario is still that the State Bank prioritizes regulating liquidity and using measures to support targeted credit transfer, instead of entering a period of sharp policy interest rate cuts. If the USD continues to strengthen in the context of the Fed raising interest rates, this trend will be further strengthened.
With the stock market, the story may shift more strongly from widespread revaluation expectations to the ability to create cash flow, capital structure, leverage level and capital cost affordability of each enterprise. The biggest obstacle is that high deposit interest rates limit new cash flow flow into the stock channel. Risk is also reflected in the high margin balance, which may create selling pressure in the short term.
The cash flow story in the coming months is not only about who is selling but also about the ability of domestic cash flow to continue to absorb supply and where new capital will come from. If selling pressure from outside continues to decrease, proprietary trading maintains a flexible position and personal cash flow plays a pillar role, the market may have more room to wait for capital flows related to the upgrade process, with a more expected impact in 2027.
