VN-Index has just experienced a shocking week of decline when losing more than 94 points, marking the strongest correction since April. This development is in complete contrast to the positive trend of the world stock market, when both Dow Jones and S&P 500 simultaneously set a new historical peak.
The sharp decline in the market but liquidity is only at an average level, about 22,000 billion VND on HoSE, clearly reflecting the liquidity shortage in the financial system and increasing pressure from the interest rate level. Currently, the increase in OMO interest rates from 4% to 4.5% has caused the capital costs of banks to increase, while overnight interest rates have reached 7.5% at times - the highest level in recent years.
In that context, large cash flows are still out of observation and are not ready to accept the current price to disburse decisively.
However, this caution does not mean the risk of a long, bottomless free fall. In fact, when the market has suffered a strong discount - losing nearly 100 points in just 4 sessions and the P/E valuation level expected in 2026 has retreated to an attractive area, lower than the regional average, the space to continue to decrease will tend to narrow.
The current selling pressure is mainly due to psychological and technical factors, including call margin activities, instead of coming from the fundamental weakness of the business.
In that context, experts say that the market is likely to have a technical recovery from the beginning of next week and may last until the end of the month. The recovery range of many stocks can reach about 10-15%, especially the midcap group that has been sold strongly and deeply discounted recently. This will also be the group with the best ability to recover if short-term cash flow returns to the market.
However, according to the general assessment of experts, this is not the stage to get to the bottom as the risks are still lurking. Cash flow remains indifferent, while foreign investors continue to maintain their net selling momentum (the 6th consecutive session), causing more pressure on psychology. Opportunities only really come when we see a consensus of cash flow in supporting the index. "C catch a knife" when liquidity is weak and the anxiety is still high is extremely risky. Investors should wait patiently for the market to establish a new balance zone.
SGI Capital assessed that in the next 3 months, there are many expectations that the credit room opened for 2026 will create a wave at the beginning of the year as usual. This, according to SGI, depends largely on the speed of improving the liquidity of the system according to the ability to mobilize capital in the coming months.
In case of good mobilization, interest rates can stabilize again, creating conditions for cash flow to spread to seek investment opportunities. In case credit continues to increase too strongly beyond mobilization capacity, interest rates will continue to increase and the competitive effect on capital sources will occur in the inter-market, causing cash flow to continue to decrease in the stock market, creating more pressure if investors and business owners have to sell less stocks to reduce debt and compensate for liquidity shortages.
With the experience of previous interest rate increases, businesses and investors should not be subjective with the scenario of prolonged interest rate increases and liquidity becoming more difficult in 2026, causing transactions in the stock and real estate markets to narrow.
"A great opportunity for value-added investors may arise in the coming months, when hot money with borrowed origin enters the market during the recent period of cheap money withdrawing under pressure to increase interest rates and liquidity pressure, bringing the market to a truly attractive valuation level. However, this is a very sensitive period for the financial market in general and the stock market in particular," said experts from SGI Capital.
