In today's trading session (December 12), after a few minutes of slight recovery when opening, selling pressure increased rapidly.
Selling orders below the reference price appeared more often in the last minutes, making investors compete to sell strongly, causing the index to decrease by more than 60 points at times.
At the time of closing, the falling rate was reduced, but the VN-Index still closed the session with a decrease of 52 points, equivalent to 3%, to 1,646.9 points.
bottom-fishing demand in the last minutes helped market liquidity increase by more than VND9,000 billion compared to the previous session. Accordingly, the entire HoSE exchange recorded 906 million shares matched, equivalent to a trading value of VND 24,288 billion.
Despite trading in a state of panic, foreign investors still kept a " cool head". In today's session, they only net sold nearly 600 billion VND on the HoSE.
The HoSE floor electricity table was almost in the red with 296 stocks down, including 31 stocks down. On the other hand, there were only 4 codes of increase, including 2 codes of ceiling increase, QCG and MDG. The most negative impact on the index, in addition to the Vingroup group (VHM, VPL, VIC, VRE), is that there are also bank codes such as VPB, TCB, MBB, VCB, HDB, BID.
VN-Index has just gone through 4 consecutive sessions of decline with a total adjustment of more than 100 points, pushing the index down below the 1,700 point range. The market became more unpredictable when the group of "hand-carried" Vingroup stocks decreased in points, it was thought that cash flow would look for new opportunities, but many stocks not only could not hold the price base but also decreased further, causing investors to "go further" in the context of cautious psychology covering the market.
If the impact of Vingroup " tropical" stocks on the index is eliminated, the market is likely to be at the bottom. The big question is: What is waiting for the market ahead and what is a reasonable scenario for the VN-Index in the short term?
The pressure of the financial market is still due to: year-end bond maturities and stock issuance and IPO are still high, expected to surpass 2021, reaching a new record in the history of the Vietnamese stock market. In addition, the market is not cheap enough in the context of interest rates still increasing, limiting demand, making it difficult for the market to break out in the short term.
Another important factor that is strongly affecting the stock market is the development of interest rates. Towards the end of the year, the market began to show some unfavorable signals as the interest rate level tended to increase again.
After a long period of maintaining high credit growth, the banking system is facing a liquidity shortage and pressure on the LDR ratio, forcing many banks to push up deposit interest rates - especially for short terms under 6 months.
It can be seen that from now until the end of the year there is not much time left, market liquidity is likely to only remain around the current level.
With a weak liquidity scenario, stocks that have had explosive trading in the September-November period will face many obstacles, due to the large number of investors stuck in the high price zone. These groups need more time to accumulate, so the year-end wave search strategy in groups such as banks or securities is considered inappropriate.
The two groups are considered the most promising, public investment and oil and gas, especially the public investment group, when it is expected that revenue and profit in the fourth quarter will be strongly boosted by accelerated disbursement pressure.
