After a series of 9 consecutive increases, the Vietnamese stock market has turned to adjust. VN-Index had 2 consecutive sharp declines, thereby falling below the threshold of 1,720 points.
In particular, in the trading session on December 10, with a decrease of more than 28 points, the Vietnamese stock market became the strongest market in Asia.
This is something that some securities companies have forecast to investors about cautiously assessing market developments and stock developments of other industry groups, in case VIC - a stock with a leading price increase, strongly affecting the index - begins to be under pressure to adjust and accumulate.
The VN30 group of stocks "losed steam" causing the main index to lack momentum. At the end of the session on December 10, the VN-Index decreased by 28 19:30 to 1,710.98 points, the matched value reached about VND19,540 billion. Regarding foreign transactions, the group of foreign investors continued to net sell VND 368 billion in the whole market.
The pressure to adjust the session on December 10 was quite localized, mainly focusing on stocks that have increased sharply in recent times such as Vingroup, Vietjet (VJC), Sabeco (SAB), ... Previously, this group of stocks was the locomotive that pulled the index closer to the old peak. Therefore, profit-taking pressure is inevitable.
According to analysts, the negative developments of the real estate group and the weakening of retail and consumer stocks are causing the market to lack momentum for recovery in the short term. The cautious state is expected to continue in the coming sessions, in the context that investors continue to wait for clearer support signals from macro factors and institutional cash flow.
However, investors still have reason to hope that the market's correction will not be too strong. A series of Bluechips have not increased much, some are even in attractive price areas after the previous peak adjustment. The bottom-fishing cash flow is expected to be activated soon if there is no too bad information flow to the market.
In response to concerns that the stock market could spike sharply, which could lead to deep correction risks, SSI Research's December strategy report provides a perspective based on valuation data. Currently, the VN-Index's projected P/E in 2025 fluctuates around 14.5 times, equivalent to the general level of the region.
However, the key point is the profit outlook for 2026. With the forecast of profit growth of listed enterprises reaching 14.5% (higher than the regional average of 11.5%), the market's projected P/E in 2026 will decrease to 12.7 times. This figure is significantly lower than the 10-year average of 14 times. SSI Research believes that this valuation is still attractive for the long term and there are no signs of an "incubation" of assets.
In addition to valuation, the story of upgrading the market continues to be the focus with a series of accelerated reforms such as: removing pre-funding requirements, deploying an STP system for foreign institutional investors and simplifying account opening procedures.
Notably, Decree 245/2025 has created a legal corridor prohibiting the application of a lower ceiling than the regulations, and at the same time laid the foundation for the central clearing mechanism (CCP) expected to be implemented from the second half of 2026. SSI Research estimates that being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE Russell could help Vietnam attract about 1.5 billion USD in passive capital from ETFs.
Based on these growth and reform drivers, SSI Research raises the target of VN-Index for 2026 to 1,920 points.
