In the past trading week, the Vietnamese stock market recorded strong fluctuations, especially in the last two sessions of the week, when VN-Index unexpectedly suffered great downward pressure after just conquering the 1,800 point zone. However, looking at the whole week, the index still increased by 25.49 points, equivalent to 1.50% compared to the previous week and closed at 1,729.80 points.
VN-Index still maintained green with the highest liquidity compared to the previous 6 weeks, showing that the upward trend has not been broken on the weekly chart.
Stepping into the new week, according to experts' assessment, the market is likely to still trade in a sensitive state. Pinetree Securities Company assessed that, entering the last trading week of the 2025 New Year, the dien bien of Vingroup stock group will continue to be a key factor dominating both the index and market sentiment. The scenario that may occur is that this group of stocks reverses direction and continues to pull past the peak, or after the recovery phase is another wave of selling to absorb supply.
In other industry groups, it is highly likely that the market will continue to strongly differentiate. In addition to the oil and gas group, which is showing relatively clear cash flow, most of the remaining industry groups have not recorded the synchronous and strong enough participation of large cash flows.
In that context, it is possible that VN-Index will have another sell-off in the short term, before the market can enter a significant and clearer recovery phase after the New Year holiday," Pinetree's analysis team predicted.
MBS Securities Company believes that interest rates are the main risk for the stock market in 2026. Accordingly, MBS's analysis group forecasts that 12-month deposit interest rates may continue to increase by 50 basis points in 2026 due to widening the difference between loans and deposits at commercial banks (CBs).
The capital demand of the economy is forecast to continue to increase sharply in the next 5 years, while deposits are shifting to other less liquid investment channels such as gold, USD, and real estate, slowing down the pace of capital turnover in the economy.
In addition, the difference in the structure of mobilization and lending terms. Currently, the ratio of short-term deposits (under 6 months) is still accounting for 80% of the total system deposits, while the demand for medium and long-term capital for infrastructure investment plans is very large, leading to long-term capital shortage pressure in the system.
Bad debt is still maintained at a high level, while the coverage rate is decreasing, showing that the pressure to make provisions for commercial banks continues to increase in the future. This is also a factor that makes it difficult for interest rates to fall in the near future.
The current P/E valuation of VN-Index (excluding VIC) is only about 13.5 times, while the average in 2025 is about 12.2 times. This implies that, if not considering the impact from Vingroup stock group, the upward momentum of VN-Index in the past time mainly came from profit growth of listed companies, instead of the expansion of valuation.
On that basis, the target valuation range is 12.5 - 13.0 times P/E for 2026. Assuming that the profits of listed companies increase by about 16 - 17%, VN-Index is forecast to reach the range of 1,670 - 1,750 points by the end of 2026.
Regarding the developments in each phase, MBS's analysis group maintains a positive view of the market in the first half of 2026, thanks to the "good news at the beginning of the year" effect and the possibility that the Vietnamese stock market will be officially upgraded after the mid-term review in March. In a favorable scenario, VN-Index may head towards the 1,860 point zone in the first half of the year.
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