The Vietnamese stock market is in a steady uptrend, the VN-Index has increased for 8 consecutive weeks, recording the longest streak since the beginning of November 2020 to mid-January 2021. Despite the strong increase in profit-taking pressure at the 3-year peak, abundant cash flow is still holding the market firmly above the 1,300-point mark.
Liquidity continues to improve significantly, with the average daily trading value exceeding VND20,000 billion/session, up 20 - 30% compared to the average of the same period last year. This shows that cash flow is generally remaining strong, despite concerns about the possibility of a short-term correction.
Currently, domestic individual investors account for more than 90% of daily transaction liquidity, reflecting the overwhelming role of domestic cash flow in the market. In the context of foreign investors narrowing their net selling momentum, but not returning to net buying significantly, the short-term trend of the market will depend mainly on domestic cash flow.
Market data and surveys show that the margin trading rate at large securities companies is still low, while unofficial deposit lending activities are still very limited compared to the period before the corporate bond market fluctuated in 2022. This shows that most of the current cash flow is still self-made capital, with the mentality of investing and accumulating, instead of speculation, helping to reduce the risk of short-term profit taking or selling due to foreclosure pressure.
Looking back at the time in 2024, most margin of securities companies mainly focused on the "dealer" group or large shareholders, but after a period of strong liquidity increase since February 2025, the amount of margin has cooled down and margin tends to shift gradually to small investors.
At the same time, the low margin ratio shows that investors are still using their own capital, and this is a phenomenon that often occurs similar to the beginning of the 2020-2021 baby boom when the amount of idle money deposited at banks is very large in 2024. In addition, with deposit interest rates being low at banks as at present, investors believe that savings deposits will continue to shift to the stock market when market dividends are still more attractive.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, commented that in the context of market liquidity remaining at a high level without much dependence on margin, it shows that the cash flow participating is mainly cash instead of loans. This is a positive signal, reflecting the highly cautious psychology of investors instead of short-term speculative activities. Thanks to that, the risk of selling off due to foreclosure pressure is also limited, a factor that often appears when the market increases rapidly thanks to financial leverage.
The stock market will have corrections, however, the probability of a sharp decrease is not high, because there is still a large amount of money waiting for the opportunity to participate. Moreover, although many industry groups have recovered significantly, the stock price level is still far from the 2022 peak and the valuation of some large industry groups in the market is still at an acceptable level, while the prospect of EPS growth in 2025 is high, possibly exceeding the expectation by 18 - 20%.
This year, the Government has shown high determination to achieve the GDP growth target of 8%, with the economy recovering clearly. In addition, positive news also continues to spread across many industry groups. These are the reasons why investors should take advantage of the corrections to accumulate stocks for the upcoming growth cycle.
