After 7 weeks of good increase and overcoming the strong resistance level of 1,300 points, the stock market had fluctuations and slight adjustments. In terms of scores, the index has increased by about 120 points, equivalent to 10%, a very impressive figure showing that the wave of increase this time is quite strong.
The increased liquidity at the decreasing rates in the session also implied great distribution pressure, leaving open the possibility of further expansion of the adjustment rate. According to experts, it is normal for the market to have adjustment fluctuations.
The positive point is that demand is also very good, the current adjustment is like a breakthrough before continuing to break out. When the main index and leading groups continue to adjust, cash flow will continue to spread to industry groups, stocks that have not increased in the recent period such as steel, import-export, real estate, etc.
Regarding the improvement of cash flow, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is currently implementing a series of solutions to help commercial banks reduce deposit interest rates and maintain low lending interest rates. In the context of the USD index continuing to cool down due to concerns about the growth of the US economy, causing the USD/VND exchange rate to not increase hotly, the SBV may continue to operate monetary policy in an loose direction to stimulate economic growth. Deposit interest rates still tend to decrease slightly, while lending interest rates may remain at the current low level or will decrease more for the manufacturing sector.
This will help the stock market continue to benefit and have a positive trend in the coming time. And with low interest rates, cash flow in the economy may shift to higher-risk investment channels such as bonds and stocks.
The story of accumulation and entering new waves of the market in the coming time will also depend more on the nature of stocks as well as the situation of operations and business plans in 2025. If it is a good stock, strong growth, high dividend payment... information at the end of March and the beginning of April 2025 such as general meetings of shareholders, dividends, business plans... will be a positive motivation for this group to increase after the accumulation and sideways period.
Factors that can affect the market in the short term include the continued strong net selling of foreign investors in the past 2 years. If this trend continues, it could make it difficult for the VN-Index to break out. The reasons for the recent net selling period include exchange rate pressure, global capital flows into the US and other developed countries, and many missed market upgrade schedules.
Exchange rate pressure is cooling down, on the other hand, the trend of withdrawing capital to developed markets may also reverse this year when the US market is having high valuations. Therefore, it can reduce net selling pressure.
Another risk factor comes from US President Donald Trump's policies, the imposition of tariffs on Vietnamese goods can negatively affect exports. If the risk of US economic recession and global inflation occurs, it could affect Vietnam's monetary policy.
The stock market is still having a good upward momentum, but the increase is not uniform between industry groups and the cash flow is rotating in industry groups to benefit from macro policy developments. Therefore, at the time the market enters the differentiation stage, risk management should be given top priority.
