VN-Index had a trading week that investors assessed as quite positive when it set a new historical peak above the threshold of 1,900 points on January 13. However, in the following trading sessions, the index suffered downward pressure under increasing profit-taking pressure in the high zone.
At the end of the trading week from January 12-16, VN-Index increased by 11.23 points, equivalent to an increase of 0.6% to 1,879.13 points. Active liquidity with all sessions had a liquidity level of over 1 billion units, corresponding to a total value of over 35,000 billion VND. The total trading value of the entire market last week reached 206,888 billion VND, an increase of 25% compared to the previous week.
Foreign investors continued to have an unexpected trading trend when net buying at the beginning of the week but quickly "sold off" in subsequent sessions. Accumulated after 5 sessions, foreign investors net sold 2,200 billion VND on the entire market.
Statistics according to stock codes, VRE is the stock that was net sold the strongest in the week with a value of 713 billion VND, leading the group under pressure to withdraw capital from foreign investors. After being net sold a lot, VHM (-663 billion VND) and MSN (-453 billion VND) followed.
In the opposite direction, banking stocks are the focus of net buying of foreign investors. In which, VCB code leads the list of net buyers with a value of up to 1,267 billion VND, far ahead of the remaining codes. Followed by VPB (385 billion VND) and TCX (311 billion VND).
It can be seen that in the past week, with the highlight of Resolution 79-NQ/TW on state economic development, new expectations are being soaked in the stock market, when the "leading" role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is repositioned, opening up opportunities to raise the valuation level for banking, energy, infrastructure and telecommunications stock groups.
This expectation has been reflected in the stock market with the index continuously setting a new peak of 1,900 points with the imprint of the leading SOE group, in which the banking stock group (VCB, BID, CTG) is prominent.
In addition to the group of state-owned banks, leading state-owned enterprises such as: Oil and Gas, Viettel, Insurance, Rubber... also contribute to the index and market liquidity.
In the newly released report, analysts at Rong Viet Securities Company believe that when the mechanism is unlocked, investors expect SOEs to accelerate the divestment and equitization roadmap, thereby bringing investors the opportunity to own assets in natural monopoly industries or have a dominant position. This is the solution to the problem of "high-quality goods" in the stock market, which is lacking new faces of stature.
The analysis group of ACBS Securities Company forecasts that stocks in the Company's analysis portfolio (accounting for about 50% of HOSE's capitalization) will grow after-tax profit by 14% in 2026. This is a lower increase than the 21.1% in 2025. However, the profit growth momentum of key industry groups such as banking, real estate, retail, and public investment still reaches 15-20%. In which, the electricity and oil and gas group alone is at risk of a 10% profit decline in 2026.
From the growth prospects, the analysis group believes that the Vietnamese stock market will continue to trade in the base valuation zone of +/- 1 standard deviation from the average P/E of the last 5 years. However, the base scenario leans towards the possibility of VN-Index moving in the zone from the average to +1 standard deviation.
Based on forecasts about the Vingroup group and the rest of the market growing at profit, ACBS builds a baseline scenario for the VN-Index in 2026 at 2,040 points.
At the same time, ACBS's 2026 strategic portfolio emphasizes leading stocks in the banking, retail, civil real estate and public investment sectors because it simultaneously meets the criteria: core business operations with sustainable growth in 2026; benefiting from market upgrades; attractive valuation, having the opportunity to increase valuation from subsidiary IPO events in 2026 and continuing to benefit in the next 5-year cycle thanks to promoting public investment.
