The Vietnamese stock market continued to flourish when the VN-Index for the first time surpassed the 1,900 point mark, setting a new historical peak with a clear mark from the leading state-owned enterprise group, especially the state-owned banking stock group such as VCB, BID and CTG.
Although the market rose mainly thanks to large-cap stocks and pillar stocks, the market breadth still recorded a spread of cash flow, instead of being highly concentrated as in the period of 2025. Besides the state-owned banking group, cash flow also targeted many other leading state-owned enterprises such as oil and gas, Viettel, insurance, rubber...
In addition to the positive developments in points, a notable highlight is that cash flow on the market seems to have been "convinced". Right in the first week of the new year, market liquidity has increased sharply compared to the last two months of last year.
However, in the short term, MBS analysts believe that the market may face fluctuations. Profit margins have increased significantly in some leading stock groups such as banking, oil and gas, and insurance, while the VN-Index is moving into a strong technical resistance zone around 1,900 points.
Accordingly, the possibility of technical adjustments is necessary for investors to restructure their portfolios and shift to stock groups that are prioritized by cash flow in the early stages of the year.
In addition, MBS also noted that the risk to the market comes from interest rate variables. Recently, the interest rate race between banks has become increasingly vibrant. Since the beginning of January 2026, three commercial banks including VPBank, MSB and ABBank have adjusted interest rates to increase.
Regarding industry groups and stocks, the market is assessed to have had a relatively successful "pivot exchange" when VN-Index found new leading stock groups to compensate for pressure from stocks that had increased sharply in the previous year. The outstanding stock groups at the present time include banking, oil and gas, rubber, Viettel, retail, insurance, industrial park real estate...
In the past week, the concentration of cash flow into bank stocks was quite high, accounting for about 1/3 of the total market liquidity, similar to the beginning of August 2025. Therefore, MBS believes that along with the quite positive profitability achieved in a short time, bank stocks as well as leading state-owned enterprise stocks may face profit-taking pressure as VN-Index approaches the resistance zone of 1,900 points.
In addition to profit-taking pressure from leading stock groups, investors are recommended to closely monitor developments in weak stock groups in the past such as securities, residential real estate, and steel. In a positive scenario, these groups may only appear with a technical rebound after a deep decline period; while the possibility of continuing to accumulate or even losing the price base area may still occur.
Technically, MBS emphasizes that the index being in a record high point range does not mean that all stock groups are suitable for action. In the short term, the technical resistance zone of VN-Index is determined in the 1,900 point area, while the near support zone is around 1,830 – 1,850 points.
Regarding trading strategy, MBS recommends that investors gradually take profits for the group of leading state-owned enterprise stocks when VN-Index enters the resistance zone of 1,900 points. For weak stock groups such as securities and residential real estate, investors can take advantage of technical rebounds to restructure their portfolios to leading stock groups. In case stocks continue to weaken or lose the price base, investors should be cautious, narrow their portfolios and bring the proportion of stocks/cash back to a safe level.
