The stock market in April recorded very strong momentum but the results were not as positive as expected, except for the price increase of the Vingroup group.
The story of upgrades still cannot stop the net selling momentum of foreign investors, interest rates cooling down or the Q1/2026 business results season have all passed.
According to experts' assessment, when the biggest drivers have been reflected but the market is still not very positive, the possibility of negative developments in the near future is very high.
Observing history, the market usually has 2 large uptrends and 2 downtrends each year. In the context of high anchor indices, positive factors have run out, the market is likely to face strong adjustment pressure.
Notably, the outstanding margin balance of the whole market has reached a record peak, while liquidity shows signs of cooling down. A market with poor breadth, high anchor index but reduced liquidity and high margin is a context that requires maximum caution.
Financial expert, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Investment Block of DG Capital, said that the risk lies in the phenomenon of "green shell red core". Many sessions the index increased points but there were hundreds of stocks decreasing in price, showing that VN-Index is poorly reflecting the actual health of the market.
When the index depends too heavily on a group of stocks, as soon as this group stagnates or is profit-taken, VN-Index will stumble very quickly.In addition, the fact that the accounts of the majority of small investors lose money even though the index increases will cause psychology of boredom, disappointment and loss of confidence in the market," Dr. Phuong stated his point of view.
Currently, experts believe that no group of stocks is strong enough to lead a wide area so that cash flow can confidently enter the market.Investors should patiently wait for strong corrections to bring the market back to a more attractive price range.It is necessary to pay special attention to the current record margin threshold, because the market cannot rely forever on the contracting of a single group of stocks to maintain the upward momentum.
Mr. Nguyen Tien Dung - Head of Industry & Stock Research Department of MB Securities Company said that in the current context, investors should prioritize defensive strategies by reducing the proportion of stocks that have increased sharply, limiting the use of margin and maintaining a higher than For investors who have had good profits in the previous period, priority should be given to protecting achievements.For investors who are holding weaker stocks than the market, it is necessary to consider restructuring the portfolio, because when the market adjusts, stocks without fundamental foundations or lacking cash flow often decrease more sharply than the index.Regarding industry groups, this expert believes that in May, priority should be given to defensive groups or groups with outstanding personal stories.
Electricity, water, utilities and some stocks with stable cash flow may be of interest in the context of market fluctuations.
The oil and gas group may stand out if oil prices continue to linger high, but investors need to control risks because commodity price fluctuations are often very unpredictable.
The banking group is still an important group for the index, but it is necessary to select carefully, prioritizing banks with good asset quality, bad debt control and still room for profit growth.
Mr. Huynh Anh Huy, Director of Industry Analysis - Kafi Securities, said that the appropriate strategy may be to switch to a slightly defensive state, but investors do not necessarily have to withdraw completely from the market, but can keep the proportion of stocks at about 30-50% in the portfolio.
At the same time, investors also need to shift to promising industry groups in the second half of 2026.Specifically, the construction and materials group benefits directly from key infrastructure projects.Legal removals and capital clearance will create momentum for real estate recovery, thereby helping the banking group improve asset quality and credit growth.This synergistic effect, if diễn ra đúng kịch bản, will create a wave spreading positively to other supporting industry groups, helping the stock market form a solid support against the reverse winds from the world.
