With VN-Index surpassing the psychological threshold of 1,750 points after a period of adjustment, it is a fairly positive technical signal. However, when entering the new week, experts believe that geopolitical developments in the Middle East are still an important variable when war is still the focus of attention of global investors, and unpredictable fluctuations can still put pressure on market sentiment.
In addition, interest rates and upgrades, and Q1/2026 business results are also important supports for the market.
A positive piece of information that may affect short-term cash flow in the market is that in the past week, commercial banks have committed to agreeing to adjust deposit and lending interest rates in the near future.
Experts believe that whether interest rate reductions can be maintained for a long time will depend on inflationary pressure and exchange rates. If inflation and exchange rates remain under control, interest rate reductions can be sustainable and help support businesses and the economy.
Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Research and Development Division - Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, said that system liquidity has recovered, along with that, the risk of inflation may soon gradually cool down when oil prices have also begun to enter a short-term downward trend, so it is expected that interest rates may cool down soon in the near future, which may have a positive impact on banking, securities and real estate groups in the context that these stock groups are having low valuations.
The Analysis Division of OCBS Securities Company also gave the view that the fact that the deposit interest rate level is maintained at a low level and the monetary policy orientation towards supporting growth is clearly a positive factor for the stock market.
When capital costs decrease, cash flow tends to seek higher profit channels, and securities are often one of the natural choices. When savings interest rates decrease, the gap between deposit interest rates and stock yields will narrow, causing cash flow from savings deposits and bonds to shift to other channels including securities channels.
Scenario for the market in the new week according to OCBS experts, in the context that the market is accumulating in a narrow range with unpredictable geopolitical factors, it leans towards the scenario that VN-Index will need tests around the current zone before having enough momentum to conquer higher levels.
The market will differentiate more strongly when entering the Q1/2026 reporting season approaching. Achieving the milestone above 1,800 points is completely feasible in the medium term thanks to upgrade expectations. However, in the short term, there will be many fluctuations to replace cash flow, which will help the growth trend be more sustainable.
According to the analysis of Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, a sustainable increase is not only based on points, but must also be strengthened by a stable increase in trading volume, thereby showing that large cash flow has really entered the game, instead of just short-term technical recovery. Conquering the 1,750 point mark is an important stepping stone, reflecting investors' expectations for a new growth cycle of the economy. However, caution is still necessary.
In the context that the market has not yet established a clear trend, a flexible strategy is most suitable for current investors. Short-term investors can take advantage of adjustments to the support zone to trade, especially in stocks with good quality that are forming an accumulation price base. In parallel, with a medium-term vision, this is also a suitable period to gradually accumulate stocks with good fundamentals, reasonable valuation and clear growth prospects.
When the market enters a new upward cycle - especially if the story of upgrade becomes a reality - these stocks are often the trend-leading group instead of just increasing according to the short-term psychological effect. The market today is like a spring being compressed: it may not rebound strongly immediately, but the longer it accumulates, the longer the trend forms, the growth band will usually be significant.
