The roadmap for upgrading the Vietnamese stock market is maintained.
At 3 am on April 8 (Vietnam time), FTSE Russell announced the mid-term review results within the framework of the March 2026 stock market classification review.
The announcement said that this organization recognizes important progress of the Vietnamese stock market, especially related to market access through global securities companies.
FTSE Russell officially confirmed to maintain the roadmap to upgrade Vietnam from the Frontier Market to the Secondary Emerging Market, according to the plan announced in October last year.
To ensure the transition process takes place stably and in accordance with market conditions, the inclusion of Vietnamese stocks in global index sets will be implemented according to a roadmap, starting from September 2026 and completing in September 2027.
Capital flows will enter Vietnam in stages
Mr. Pham Luu Hung - Chief Economist of SSI - Director of SSI Research - informed that the upgrade according to FTSE Russell criteria will be implemented in many stages, instead of creating immediate impact.
It is estimated that passive capital flow in the first phase in September 2026 is only at over 150 million USD, not enough to create a significant change in liquidity or market trends in the short term.
SSI Research experts predict that the total passive capital flow into Vietnam when FTSE upgrades may reach about 1.67 billion USD. However, most of the cash flow will only begin to participate when the official upgrade process is implemented from September 2026.
This capital flow is likely not to be disbursed at one time but will be allocated in stages, lasting for about 3-5 quarters, similar to the experience from previously upgraded markets such as Saudi Arabia. The step-by-step approach helps the market absorb cash flow in a disciplined manner, limiting liquidity shocks.
According to Mr. Hung, market developments after upgrades in the short term are not uniform, and may even have adjustment phases in the first year. However, in the medium term, many markets recorded significant growth as capital flows are gradually disbursed and fundamental factors are improved.
Notably, the upgrade expectation may begin to affect investor behavior before the official time. Capital flows from large institutions tend to participate early when they see that the market meets the criteria and operates more stably.
The upgrade is also expected to promote the process of infrastructure standardization and improve access for foreign investors, such as removing the pre-trading margin requirement, raising information disclosure standards, easing foreign ownership limits and implementing the central offsetting partnership (CCP) mechanism.
According to SSI experts, FTSE is just a stepping stone in the long-term roadmap, while MSCI is a larger target for attracting global capital flows. If conditions continue to improve, Vietnam may be considered by MSCI to be included in the ranking monitoring list in the June 2026 or June 2027 reviews.
Liquidity improves, room to attract foreign capital is still large
VPBankS analysts said that as of April 2, the average daily trading value in the last 3 months of MSCI Vietnam reached about 9 million USD, higher than some small emerging markets in MSCI Emerging Markets.
The highest trading value reached about 31 million USD/day, mainly concentrated in Vingroup stock group, financial stock group, HPG and FPT - stocks with large proportions in the MSCI Vietnam basket.
MSCI Vietnam's liquidity is currently higher than some small emerging markets such as: Philippines, Qatar, Greece and Peru, and almost equivalent to some larger markets such as Malaysia.
Although the market size is still smaller than countries in the region, with a proportion of about 12.55% in the MSCI EFM ASEAN Index, the liquidity of the Vietnamese market has improved significantly, far exceeding the Philippines, although it is still the only frontier market in this basket.
MSCI Vietnam Index currently has 68 component stocks, many times higher than other markets. FTSE's official inclusion of Vietnam in the index basket from September 21, 2026 is considered a factor to further strengthen the basis for the transition to emerging markets according to MSCI standards.
Based on the total assets of ETF funds using FTSE EM and FTSE All-World indices as references, VPBankS estimates that the minimum passive capital flow can reach about 1.7 billion USD when the entire conversion process is completed, not including capital flows from active funds. VPBankS believes that upgrades are only a supporting factor, acting as a catalyst to attract capital, while market trends still mainly depend on macroeconomic factors.
