The stock market had a fairly positive week of increase and surpassed the psychological mark of 1,700 points. However, liquidity is still a weakness when stopping at a low level. Meanwhile, cash flow continues to show strong differentiation and only individual names attract a part of investors.
At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index increased by 57.42 points, equivalent to +3.49% to 1,704.31 points. However, the matched volume was 41% lower (compared to the 20-week average).
Accumulated for the week, the average liquidity matched on the HOSE floor reached 721 million shares/session, down more than 7% compared to the previous week, the average trading value reached VND21,281 billion/session.
Foreign investors will return to net buy more than VND185 billion in the vicinity of the end of 2025, even though the group sold strongly the two major stocks VIC and DGC when net selling up to VND2,370 billion.
The leading industry groups this week are oil and gas +6.89%, securities companies +5.68% and real estate +4.72.
Notably, the appearance of bluechip VRE is due to increased bottom-fishing demand, after last week being in the deepest down group on the floor, losing more than 18%. Most notably is perhaps bluechip DGC, when leading the decline with the last 4 sessions all decreasing sharply, in which, the three sessions from December 16 to 18 were all sold strongly and the floor was reduced.
In the weekend session of December 19, despite signs of being rescued, low supply forces appeared and caused DGC shares to lose more than 6%, liquidity reached more than 36.7 million units, a record high for this stock.
Assessing the market for the past year, experts believe that 2025 can be divided into three phases. The first phase, Vn-Index increased slightly before the tax period, the second phase was a strong increase after the tax period from the beginning of April to September, followed by the third phase witnessed a strong differentiation between industry groups and stocks. Along with the increase in trading value, this shows that investor interest has returned, but in a state of caution.
Dragon Capital experts say that 2025 is a typical example of the phenomenon of "missing the best days". In April, the VN-Index experienced a sharp decline of up to 15.4% due to negative information related to tariffs, causing panic in the market and many investors chose to sell off and withdraw money to preserve capital.
During the same period, foreign investors net sold more than 5 billion USD in the first 11 months of 2025, creating more pressure on the performance of the VN-Index and further consolidating the pessimistic sentiment in the market. However, right after the bottom formed in that state of panic, the market entered a period of strong recovery.
As of the end of November, the VN-Index recorded a growth rate of 31.1% compared to the beginning of the year, thereby becoming one of the markets with the best growth rate in Asia. This development shows that important recovery sessions often appear very quickly, when the majority of investors are still cautious or have left the market.
2026 is considered by financial experts to be more pivotal, the breakthrough trend is not clear. According to the baseline scenario, if foreign capital flows are positive, the VN-Index can move in the range of 1,816-2,040 points, based on the growth of the whole market of about 17-18%. However, the important thing is not the score, but in the context of market movement, depending heavily on foreign investors as well as the macroeconomic and institutional situation in 2026.
2026 is the time when the market is between two opposite forces. On the one hand, there is pressure from rising interest rates, on the other hand, there is expectation that Vietnam will officially be upgraded to market status. The movement of these two factors will determine the rhythm and structure of the market throughout 2026.
