The stock market continues to maintain its recovery momentum with cash flow spreading widely across all sectors. The VN-Index has surpassed the MA20 average line, a positive signal for the market's recovery trend. Currently, the index is approaching the strong resistance zone around 1,270-1,280 points, corresponding to the MA50 line.
However, with liquidity still not having a strong breakthrough (below the 20-session average), investors need to be cautious before short-term correction sessions, especially in the context of world stocks being at an all-time peak with high valuations.
The FED's 0.5% interest rate cut and Circular 68 on foreign investors' transactions are considered positive factors supporting the upward trend. However, experts also recommend that the story of the FED's interest rate cut has been predicted by investors and the market has somewhat absorbed this news for a while. Therefore, when the official news is announced, the market will react more clearly. Of course, it will take some time for the FED's interest rate cut to bring about real changes that can impact the market, most clearly creating changes in investment capital flows and affecting exchange rate activities in Vietnam.
According to analysts from VPS Securities Joint Stock Company, if USD interest rates decrease, investors will tend to increase their investment in riskier assets such as stocks, creating a strong push for the global stock market. In addition, if the FED reduces interest rates, it will also reduce the pressure on the USD to appreciate, thereby stimulating investment flows into emerging and frontier markets, including Vietnam.
At this time, the Vietnamese stock market also benefits, opening up many new opportunities for investors. When money flows in, economic sectors feel positive signals from increased investment capital. Enterprises expand their scale and improve operational efficiency, increased profits will stimulate interest from investors.
Experts from SHS Securities Company believe that the short-term trend of VN-Index continues to improve, increasing again with the nearest support zone around 1,270 points, the average level of 20 sessions with the expectation of continuing to retest the zone of 1,280-1,300 points, corresponding to the trend line connecting the highest price zones in June-August 2024.
Current developments show that short-term demand and cash flow have improved, opening up many short-term opportunities for the market when there are fluctuations and adjustments, especially for stocks that have not recovered much, with price ranges equivalent to the VN-Index at 1,240-1,250 points.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, recommends that investors should note that global indices are still at all-time highs with high valuations and that derivative contract expirations can also interfere with the increase in points. Therefore, investors should avoid chasing stocks and only temporarily hold stocks with good fundamentals and long-term growth potential.
“In general, the FED’s interest rate adjustment has had a strong impact on the entire global economy, opening up many opportunities for investors. To effectively take advantage of these changes, investors need to be sensitive and have smart investment strategies,” said Dr. Phuong.
