In a recent report, SHS Securities Company said that the stock market in the coming time will continue to differentiate strongly, as price movements are increasingly dependent on the business prospects of each business. Especially, in the context that the Q2 business results announcement season has passed and the market is entering a period of information gap.
According to SHS Securities Company, VN-Index is still heavily influenced by the Vingroup and banking group. Among them, the banking group currently has an average valuation of P/E 8.60 times and P/B 1.35 times, which is considered low, equivalent to times of crisis in history. Conversely, the Vingroup group, after a period of strong price increase, is having a high valuation, while the short and medium-term price trend has shifted to an accumulation phase.
After a sharp decline, many quality businesses with good growth prospects are having lower P/E and P/B ratios than historically, creating an attractive valuation level for considering investment. According to SHS, investors should assess opportunities based on the growth prospects of each business and economy, and expect the market to welcome new investment capital flows after being upgraded.
In August, the market is forecast to continue to move in a mixture of supporting factors and risks. On the positive side, the economy is expected to continue to grow well, with a GDP target of over 10% in 2026. Inflation is expected to cool down, while interest rate fluctuations for short terms have stabilized.
Notably, FTSE Russell will announce a portfolio of stocks that meet the criteria for FTSE GEIS. SHS expects this development to help foreign investors stop the continuous net selling streak. In addition, market capitalization is still considered relatively attractive compared to the size of the economy and GDP growth rate.
On the risk side, geopolitical tensions in the world continue, while increasing tariff pressures may put pressure on trade flows in 2026. SHS also noted the simultaneous bubble formation on some types of assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, silver and precious metals, along with the AI technology stock bubble, while real estate prices tend to decrease.
Notably, SHS notes that the high margin loan balance ratio is also a factor that needs to be monitored, which may increase fluctuations and the level of differentiation of the market. With VN-Index, SHS expects the index to continue to recover to around 1,800 points, before it may be under pressure to adjust and accumulate.
In that context, some industry groups are assessed by SHS as having positive prospects thanks to their own drivers. Groups with outstanding growth compared to the general market include real estate, energy - oil and gas and finance, with many leading enterprises recording strong business growth results.
The securities industry is expected to benefit in the medium term from FTSE's announcement of market upgrades, thereby attracting more foreign capital and promoting liquidity.
With the banking group, pre-tax profit of the entire industry in Q2/2026 increased by 24% compared to the same period, higher than the increase of 14% in Q1/2026, thanks to continued expansion of credit and NIM tending to recover slightly. Asset quality has declined but is still within control. The valuation of bank stocks has returned to the P/B range of about 1.4 times, equivalent to the 10-year average minus a standard deviation, thereby creating positive support for the industry in the past. This is also the group accounting for a large proportion of market capitalization and is expected to attract foreign capital after the market officially upgrades.
