In the trading session on August 20, the stock market had another session strongly affected by the large-cap group. The VN30 index today increased by more than 11 points with 23 codes maintaining green color, becoming an important driving force. In which, VIC contributed nearly 3.4 points to the increase of VN-Index.
Vingroup's shares closed today at 202,000 VND/share, 1% higher than the reference price. Liquidity ranked first in the market with nearly 1,063 billion VND. This code recorded more than 55% of matched orders from active buyers.
VN-Index closed above 1,734 points, up nearly 8 points compared to yesterday. However, the level of consensus in the market is not high. This is reflected in the number of stocks increasing on the HOSE floor reaching 160, maintaining a low difference compared to 134 declining stocks.
Although VN-Index increased, the total trading value on HOSE decreased by nearly 10% to about 13,500 billion VND. In addition, foreign investors continued to prioritize selling goods with a net selling value of about 617 billion VND.
In recent days, the stock market has been quite quiet. Investor sentiment has shown boredom after a long series of losses, causing liquidity to decrease significantly. The trading session on August 20 was the 11th consecutive session with liquidity below the 20,000 billion VND threshold, showing that the upward momentum has not been confirmed by large cash flow.
The stock market at this time is not without stories to expect. The trailing P/E of VN-Index is currently around 12 times, in a relatively low area compared to history. Meanwhile, business results of enterprises still maintain positive growth momentum.
What makes cash flow "turn its back" on stocks today is that the domestic interest rate level is under increasing pressure, while long-term capital demand is still high. When capital costs increase, the impact is not only limited to reducing the relative attractiveness of stocks but also directly putting pressure on businesses to use leverage.
Although the most tense period of the interest rate level is likely to have passed, the support space from interest rates is not strong enough to promote cash flow back to the stock market on a large scale in the last months of the year.
In the medium term, experts believe that the market will receive support from economic growth, fiscal policy, business profit prospects and expectations of increased foreign capital flows as the market upgrade process enters a new phase.
However, cooling down lending rates does not mean that the deposit interest rate level will soon return to the low level of the previous period, in the context that the international and domestic macroeconomic environment has changed a lot, while the capital demand for economic development in the medium term is still very large.
On the other hand, interest rates are not the only macroeconomic variable that determines the trend of the stock market. Inflation pressure, exchange rates and developments in international monetary policy still need to be closely monitored.
The positive point in the last months of the year is not in the expectation of rapid and simultaneous interest rate reductions, but in the possibility that the most stressful period of the interest rate level has passed. System liquidity is more stable, pressure to increase lending interest rates is controlled, while deposit interest rates need more time to cool down. When combined with a more reasonable valuation level, business profit prospects and market upgrade expectations, stocks have more basis to attract cash flow.
However, to create broad momentum, the market still needs more time to accumulate and wait for signs of clear cooling deposit interest rates, thereby consolidating a more sustainable growth trend in the medium term.
