Experts assess that the credit growth target of 15% is optimistic

Minh Ánh |

According to financial experts, the credit growth target of 15% is completely feasible, because the current growth rate and signs of economic recovery this year are showing many positive factors.

Positive credit growth

At the time of statistics on September 17, 2024, the credit growth of the whole system reached 7.38% compared to the end of 2023. At the same time last year, credit growth only reached 5.33%, but by the end of the year, the whole industry's credit still achieved the set target of 13.71%.

PGS.TS Pham Manh Hung - Pho Vien truong Vien NCKH Ngan hang, Hoc vien Ngan hang - cho biet, tang truong tin dung doi voi cac nganh nam nay deu cai thien so voi cung ky nam 2023. Anh: NVCC
Associate Professor, Dr. Pham Manh Hung - Deputy Director of the Institute of Banking Research, Banking Academy - said that credit growth for all industries this year has improved compared to the same period in 2023. Photo: NVCC

Speaking to Lao Dong, Associate Professor Dr. Pham Manh Hung - Deputy Director of the Institute of Banking Science Research, Banking Academy - said that credit growth for all sectors this year has improved compared to the same period in 2023, the credit structure is in line with the economic restructuring orientation. Credit continues to be directed to production and business activities, priority sectors, consumer credit has recovered. Key economic issues such as exchange rates, gold prices, interest rates, etc. have all been resolved very flexibly and effectively by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), thereby increasing confidence for businesses and investors, promoting credit growth.

Associate Professor Dr. Hung affirmed: "With the current growth rate and signs of economic recovery this year, the growth rate in all categories is assessed as very positive. I think that the possibility of achieving the credit growth target of 15% is optimistic."

Associate Professor Dr. Hung pointed out favorable factors that help credit accelerate at the end of the year, including: Capital demand will start following the economic recovery; The State Bank has allocated the entire credit growth target of 15% to all commercial banks so that banks can be proactive in granting credit; The Government has taken measures to promote more positive economic activities, adding stimulus solutions such as a policy of reducing 50% of registration fees for domestically produced and assembled cars, promoting disbursement of credit packages to support priority and targeted subjects. Credit growth comes from the real estate market. After a series of efforts by management agencies to remove legal bottlenecks of unfinished real estate projects as well as three related decrees (Law on Real Estate Business 2023, Law on Housing 2023 and Law on Land 2024) taking effect, the real estate market has begun to show signs of improvement.

It is necessary to synchronously deploy solutions to respond to difficulties.

However, expert Pham Manh Hung also said that there are still many difficult factors that we need to pay attention to.

Accordingly, credit growth among banks is not uniform. Financial reports for the second quarter of 2024 of banks show that credit growth in the first 6 months of the year among listed commercial banks is quite diverse. There are 8 banks recording double-digit credit growth, while many large-scale banks have growth rates below 5%, and some banks even record negative growth. Therefore, solutions to promote credit growth need to be implemented synchronously and effectively from product structure to customer segments, targeting areas with real capital needs of the economy.

In addition, the actual capital absorption capacity of enterprises is still low. Moreover, lending interest rates in the Vietnamese market are still much higher than in other countries. Finally, credit activities as well as production and business activities of the whole country this year may still encounter many fluctuations in global geopolitics, as well as changes in monetary policies of countries. Therefore, Vietnam needs to have plans and a plan to cope with changes and crises in the world. Enterprises need to have specific business plans and solutions to adapt to different scenarios, those scenarios are based on assumptions about interest rates and business results of the enterprise.

Minh Ánh
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