GDP growth target 2025 is completely feasible
On the afternoon of November 12, the National Assembly officially passed the Resolution on the Socio-Economic Development Plan for 2025. According to the Resolution, there are 15 main targets that the National Assembly has decided on, in which the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is about 6.5 - 7% and strives for about 7 - 7.5%. GDP per capita is about 4,900 USD. The proportion of processing and manufacturing industry in GDP is about 24.1%. The average growth rate of consumer price index (CPI) is about 4.5%.
Chairman of the Economic Committee, Mr. Vu Hong Thanh, said that the global economic context next year is still uncertain. Therefore, the Government's targets are set based on careful consideration of favorable and challenging factors to ensure Vietnam's economic recovery and sustainable development.
Speaking to reporters of Lao Dong Newspaper, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - an economic expert - said that the National Assembly has set a rather cautious GDP growth target for 2025. With the current positive factors, achieving the GDP growth target as planned is completely feasible. Growth drivers such as public investment, private investment, and import and export are very strong. However, Vietnam needs to pay attention to risks such as fluctuations in the world economy, US trade protection policies, etc., so setting a cautious target is appropriate.
“Currently, traditional drivers such as public investment, private investment, and import and export are being strongly promoted. New drivers such as digital transformation, green transformation, and tourism development are also becoming important drivers. Decentralization, reduction of administrative procedures, and creating conditions for localities to develop their own potential will help mobilize more resources and local creativity. From that, it can be seen that Vietnam has many new growth drivers, combined with improving the business environment, will create strong developments in the coming time. In a positive scenario, I predict that in 2025, Vietnam's GDP can grow by 7.5-8%" - Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang affirmed.
FDI capital in 2025 will continue to be a bright spot
Commenting on Vietnam's economic prospects in 2025, Dr. Nguyen Huu Tho, Head of the Economic Analysis and Forecast Department at CIEM, said that Vietnam is a country with an economy deeply integrated with the world, so developments in the world economy will greatly affect Vietnam's economy in 2025.
“In 2025, we believe that the world's geopolitics will be unstable, with many unpredictable developments, but global economic growth is expected to improve thanks to the recovery of trade growth and better control of inflation,” said Mr. Tho.
According to Dr. Nguyen Huu Tho, the forecast of Vietnam's economic trends in 2025 shows that production and business will improve (PMI in 2024 will be above 50, higher than in 2023), but the number of enterprises will not increase much; State capital will continue to be the mainstay.FDI capital in 2025 will continue to be a bright spot (24.7 billion USD in the first 9 months of 2024, up 11.6%).The purchasing power of Vietnamese people will increase, but not much because labor income has not made a breakthrough; the export market will continue to grow well, thanks to the recovery of global trade and trade agreements...
From the analysis of trends in 2025, Dr. Nguyen Huu Tho proposed a number of solutions to help increase GDP growth. For example, regarding institutions, strengthening the removal of barriers when building documents guiding the implementation of laws issued in 2023 and 2024, reforming business procedures to closely follow market signals and the role of the market.
Regarding resources for development, increase private capital mobilization, reduce waste in the public and private sectors. Regarding infrastructure for development, "hard" infrastructure (continue to develop infrastructure to increase regional and inter-regional connectivity), "soft" infrastructure (about 40% of applications need to be received online, digital enterprises). Regarding policies to support development, focus on supporting production and supporting exports (exploiting trade agreements well, reducing risks of maritime transport through military conflict zones, trade defense, etc.).
