Gold prices recorded a week of strong trading fluctuations in both directions, as macroeconomic pressure and geopolitical risks intertwined, making the short-term trend unpredictable. Despite a recovery phase towards the end of the week, the precious metal still ended a 4-week consecutive winning streak.
At the beginning of the week, spot gold prices were at 4,790.17 USD/ounce and quickly decreased to test the support zone around 4,750 USD. After that, the market surged strongly in the first session of the week, setting a weekly peak at 4,830 USD/ounce. However, the upward momentum did not last long as selling pressure increased sharply, especially in Tuesday's session - when the price decreased by more than 2%, falling to the bottom of the week near 4,672 USD/ounce.
The main driver of the adjustment comes from the strengthening USD and the increase in US bond yields, in the context of high inflation expectations. This reinforces the possibility that interest rates will continue to be held at high levels for a long time - a disadvantage to gold, which is a non-performing asset. In parallel, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the disruption of transportation across themuz Strait, have pushed oil prices sharply up, increasing inflationary pressure and making investors more cautious about monetary policy prospects.
By midweek, gold prices gradually stabilized as the market absorbed information related to the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran. Temporary risk cooling down helped limit selling pressure, while bottom-fishing buying appeared around 4,650-4,700 USD/ounce.
The last session of the week recorded a slight recovery of gold prices, supported by US economic data showing weakening consumer sentiment and increased inflation expectations. The report from the University of Michigan reinforced the view that price pressure is still present in the economy, thereby raising the role of gold as an inflation hedging tool. Precious metal prices have therefore increased to nearly 4,740 USD/ounce.
However, the increase was significantly limited as oil prices continued to remain high and geopolitical instability showed no signs of cooling down. At the end of the week, gold prices still recorded the strongest decrease in more than a month, closing around the 4,700 USD/ounce area.
Kitco News' survey shows that market sentiment is clearly differentiated. Wall Street analysts and individual investors are divided on the short-term outlook for gold, reflecting uncertainty in the context of constantly changing governing factors.
Some experts believe that the long-term trend of gold is still positive thanks to demand from central banks and the role of shelter against instability. However, in the short term, the market is in a "waiting" state, with reduced liquidity and cash flow tending to shift to the stock market - which is being supported by positive business results.
Next week is assessed as a key period when a series of economic data and monetary policy decisions are announced. The focus will be on the meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), along with decisions from the Banks of Japan, Canada, UK and Europe. In addition, indicators such as PMI, GDP and inflation will provide more signals about the health of the economy and interest rate orientation.
From a technical perspective, the 4,600 USD/ounce zone is considered an important support threshold, while the area around 4,900-5,000 USD is a strong resistance zone. In the context of the market being dominated by geopolitical news and policy expectations, gold prices are likely to continue to fluctuate widely, waiting for clearer signals about the trend.
In general, the current picture shows that gold is still under short-term pressure from high interest rates and a strong USD, but the long-term foundation has not been broken. Developments in the near future will largely depend on the negotiation process in the Middle East and the direction of global monetary policy.
