The stock market is experiencing trading sessions with stable bottom-fishing demand at low prices, helping the VN-Index avoid negative distribution sessions.
Market breadth was tilted towards losing stocks, but there was still a group of pillar stocks that maintained green, creating a support for the market.
Although the index may still have to undergo a corrective shake-up, the opportunity for a subsequent recovery continues to be reserved as the short-term uptrend is still playing a dominant role.
Currently, VN-Index has escaped the long-term boring trend, opening up expectations for a new trend. However, liquidity remains low, reflecting investors' cautious sentiment in the face of possible unexpected developments.
According to analysts at DSC Securities Company, the biggest pressure comes from the news that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has just reduced interest rates by another 0.25%, bringing the base interest rate down to 4.25-4.50%.
This is the second cut in 2024 to curb inflation. However, the Fed remains cautious as inflation remains above its 2% target and the US economy continues to grow strongly.
The impact of the Fed's policy decision spread to the Vietnamese market, putting pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate.
To curb the exchange rate increase, the State Bank has sold a large amount of USD, even though it may affect the VND liquidity of the banking system. If the exchange rate continues to increase rapidly, the stock market will face many risks in the coming time.
In the current context, the current correction period is considered an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks. For investors pursuing a short-term strategy, the differentiation and rotation of cash flow will create opportunities in small and medium-cap stocks, experts from DSC Securities Company commented.
Sharing the same view, experts from Asean Securities Company also said that the domestic market will fluctuate unpredictably and there may be slight recovery sessions in the coming time when the index is in dispute at the important support level of 1,255 points.
Therefore, investors should continue to closely monitor market developments, along with the movements of macro variables such as DXY, exchange rates, SBV's movements and world markets, to determine short-term market trends.
Investors can consider gradually disbursing long-term investment stocks when the market shows signs of recovery with increased liquidity. However, it is necessary to wait for clearer trend-setting signals from world markets and for domestic exchange rate pressure to stabilize again.
Regarding the group of stocks that play a leading role in the market, experts still assess that in 2025, the group of banking stocks is forecast to become the main driving force of the stock market.
The valuation of this group is attractive with P/B ranging from 1 - 1.3 times, significantly lower than the average of markets in the region. Credit growth of banks is forecast to reach a common level of 12 - 14%, thanks to the stable monetary policy of the State Bank.
However, the banking group still faces a number of challenges. Bad debt in the real estate sector is a notable issue, along with the difference in economic recovery speed between regions.
Thanks to the digital transformation strategy, favorable interest rate environment and stable macro economy, banks are expected to make a strong breakthrough, becoming the leading industry group in the market by 2025.
