The market had its second consecutive week of strong decline, and lost the psychological milestone of 1,700 points quite unfortunately. Trading statistics on the HOSE exchange last week, the VN-Index had 3 declining sessions and 2 increasing sessions.
Ending the trading week from March 9-13, VN-Index decreased by 71.6 points, equivalent to a decrease of 4.05% to 1,696.24 points. This is the second consecutive week that the stock market has fallen deeply, after losing more than 112 points in the previous week, equivalent to a decrease of nearly 6%.
Liquidity decreased quite sharply, with the total trading value of the whole market last week reaching VND 166,878 billion, down 19.8% compared to the previous week. Active cash flow also slowed down, causing almost no industry groups to rise up as a fulcrum.
Contrary to the sell-off of domestic investors causing the market to witness a fairly strong week of decline, foreign investors turned to net buying with the focus being MWG shares being net poured nearly 1,500 billion VND.
The most notable is the low supply pressure in the oil and gas and energy stock groups, when there was a long period before leading the wave, increasing best in the market. Pressure on the oil and gas group, in addition to profit-taking selling, is also affected from outside when crude oil prices are always in a state of strong fluctuations.
In the latest report, Vietcap Securities Company raised its average Brent oil price forecast by 9% and 19% respectively for the period 2026-2030. In the base scenario, Brent oil price in 2026 is forecast to be at 70 USD/barrel, 17% higher than the previous forecast of 60 USD/barrel. Meanwhile, the positive scenario sets the price at 90 USD/barrel for 2026, 50% higher than the old forecast.
Vietcap assesses that the prospects for domestic exploration and exploitation activities are positively assessed as many support policies are being implemented. Resolutions such as 70, 66 and 79 were issued to promote the recovery and development of the oil and gas industry.
Vietcap's analysis group expects a special mechanism for PVN to be approved in the first half of the year, while the amended Oil and Gas Law may be passed in the second half of the year, creating momentum for the long-term investment cycle of the industry.
In the report, Vietcap also gave some comments on the stocks that will benefit in the current situation. For the stock code BSR of Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Joint Stock Company, Vietcap assessed that the enterprise clearly benefited thanks to profits from inventory and increased price differences between input and output in the context of rising oil prices.
The analysis group forecasts that the business results for the first quarter of 2026 of the enterprise will be positive. As of March 6, 2026, the diesel oil price difference in Singapore reached 58 USD/barrel, doubling, while the gasoline price difference reached 24 USD/barrel, increasing by about 2.1 times.
With PVT shares of PetroVietnam Transportation Corporation, prospects are positively assessed thanks to the possibility of increasing freight rates for oil tankers, especially in spot contracts and general contracts - accounting for about 25-30% of the total volume of transportation. In the near future, freight rates may continue to increase if ships have to rederoute to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, including redirection through Cape of Good Hope, making the transportation distance longer.
In the fertilizer group, two stocks DPM and DCM were also assessed to benefit when international urea prices increased sharply. For GAS stock, Vietcap's analysis group assessed the impact as positive but at a slight level. The reason comes from the possibility that the output gas price is higher than expected, especially in the gas business segment, which is expected to account for about 23% of total output in 2026 along with higher LPG prices for internal production.
For PVS and PVD, positive impacts are expected in the medium term when high oil prices help improve the profits of oil producers, thereby promoting the demand for EPC services, drilling activities and self-inflating rig rental prices.
Meanwhile, petroleum retailers such as PLX and OIL are assessed at a neutral level. High oil prices may support business results in the short term, especially in the first quarter of 2026 thanks to low-priced inventory from the fourth quarter of 2025. However, if oil prices remain high for a long time, businesses may face the risk of losses because domestic retail prices are still regulated while input prices increase sharply.
