Opening today's trading session on August 26, the market, after a few minutes of slight fluctuations, signaled a recovery back to nearly 1,630 points thanks to the dominance of green on the electronic board. At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index expanded its momentum to more than 53 points, thereby reaching the threshold of 1,667.6 points. Liquidity decreased significantly compared to the previous few consecutive sessions, the trading value matched on HoSE was approximately VND35,000 billion.
The excitement also spread to the psychology of foreign investors. After a series of 13 consecutive net selling sessions, today foreign investors "turned around" to net buy 700 billion VND on the HoSE.
In terms of contribution level, the VN30 basket today ended the session with 30 stocks agreeing to increase prices, in which MWG, SSI, VHM and SHB increased the ceiling to further consolidate each increase of the main index. In terms of industry groups, the return of securities, banking, steel, and real estate stocks has easily brought the index back all the points it dropped in the first session of the previous week.
Looking at each stock alone, the VIC - VHM duo simultaneously increased beyond the historical peak, thereby contributing 6.6 points of increase and 4.1 points of increase for the VN-Index, respectively. Today's session, VHM stock increased the range by 6.7% to VND 105,200/CP, while VIC continued to break the peak just set in the previous session, reaching VND 135,500/CP, equivalent to an increase of 3.4%.
The two banking codes, TCB and CTG, increased by over 4%, contributing a total of nearly 5.7 points to the main index. Some other banking codes such as VCB, MBB, VPB, ACB also recorded that green has become a solid locomotive to push the VN-Index up.
The increase helped relieve market psychology after 2 consecutive sessions of VN-Index decreasing sharply and losing more than 70 points. Commenting on market developments, experts are also in agreement that the technical adjustment after the previous strong price increase of nearly 600 points is understandable. Some indicators also show that although the market is in the hottest period in history, it has not necessarily reached its peak. Even if warning signs appear, the market can still increase by 2-3 weeks before adjustment and after adjustment, it can go to a higher level.
Experts in the Market Strategy Research section of HSC Securities Company expressed the view that focusing cash flow on banks is not a structural risk. This is a common phenomenon in strong increases, when cash flow tends to focus on one leading group before spreading to another group.
History shows that such cash flow cycles have repeatedly occurred, and experts expect this cycle to be no exception. If a short-term adjustment occurs, it will be positive, creating conditions for capital to shift from the leading group to small and medium-sized stocks, thereby helping the market expand its participation and maintain more sustainable growth momentum.
In the short term, the market may fluctuate until the end of August and the beginning of September. This is affected by the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), exchange rate fluctuations, net selling pressure from foreign investors, portfolio restructuring activities before the National Day holiday and short-term speculative transactions. In addition, the increased leverage ratio at securities companies also raises concerns about the possibility of a deeper correction.
The positive point is that large cash flow is not only running on index fluctuations, but relies more on fundamental factors such as corporate profit prospects and economic growth. With the P/E valuation falling only around 15 times, still significantly low compared to the peak of previous cycles (about 22 times), the market still has a lot of room.
When the Government's growth support policies are effective, corporate profits are expected to improve significantly, opening up opportunities for a wave of revaluations in the whole market, while creating a foundation for mid- and small-cap stocks to become the main driving force in the next period.
