The focus of the recent adjustment of the stock market comes from the group of banking stocks, when a series of stocks were sold strongly, even the floor decreased for 2 consecutive sessions, causing many new investors who had not yet bought stocks to suffer losses.
For example, in the session of August 25, bank codes such as VPB, TPB, MSB, OCB, VIB or NAB all decreased in floor space. Notably, VPB fell to the floor for 2 consecutive sessions, causing investors to lose up to 14% in just a few days last weekend and if they use financial leverage (margin), the loss will be even heavier.
This development has made many investors question: Are bank stocks out of stock or are just entering a correction period after a series of hot increases?
Recently, many bank stocks have increased sharply, surpassing historical peaks, or are aiming for historical peaks but continue to attract cash flow for many reasons. First, banks are still the group with the best profit growth prospects in the market. As of the end of June 2025, outstanding credit of listed banks recorded 10.1% compared to the beginning of the year and increased by 20.3% over the same period.
According to MB Securities Company's estimate, credit growth will reach about 17 - 18% in 2025 thanks to factors such as promoted public investment, recovered capital demand of private enterprises, and the real estate market is recovering positively due to the effective removal of long-standing legal and administrative bottlenecks.
Many banks are expected to see after-tax profits in 2025 grow by 15% compared to last year. The cost-to-income ratio (CIR) remains stable over the same period, leading to a 15% increase in net profit of the whole industry compared to the same period in 2025, more positive than the 13.4% in the previous forecast. The forecast of adjusted provisioning costs is the main factor driving the expectation of profits of banks to increase slightly compared to the previous forecast.
With the story of bank stock price movements, recently, stocks in this industry group have recorded an average increase of up to 40% compared to the beginning of the year and about 17% compared to the beginning of August. This increase is superior to the increase of 29% and 9.6% of the VN-Index in the same period, respectively.
As of August 21, 2025, the average P/B valuation of listed banks is 1.7 times, 20% higher than the 3-year average. Compared to the valuations of stocks of banks in the region, the valuation of stocks of Vietnamese banks is also higher.
Experts from MB Securities Company believe that the positive developments in the banking industry's stock market in recent times have been mainly led by a favorable macro environment, loose monetary policy, legal changes to unblock the real estate market and promote public investment.
In addition, the expectation of the Vietnamese stock market being upgraded in September also supports stocks in this industry due to large capitalization and liquidity factors suitable for the investment taste of foreign investors. However, these favorable factors have reflected in valuations, while the average profit growth of the whole industry is only 15% in the period of 2025 - 2026.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment and Strategy Director of DG Capital, commented that although the banking group still plays a supporting role, it has also increased sharply in recent times, so there will also be differentiation. Bank stock valuation is not yet too high. Most banks have a P/B index (book value) of less than 2.4 times, while this year's credit is expected to increase by 16% and many banks' profits may exceed 20%. This shows that there is still room for growth for the banking group. Small banking stocks that have not increased sharply in the recent past have lower value than the general increase will continue to increase.
