Closing the first trading month of 2025, VN-Index decreased by 1% compared to the last session of 2024, to 1,259.63 points (end of session on January 23, 2025). However, according to VietstockFinance data, the banking sector index still maintained a slight increase of 1.36% compared to the end of 2024, to 787.85 points.
In January 2025, the capitalization value of the banking group increased by VND 102,183 billion, to nearly VND 2.2 million billion (as of January 23, 2025), an increase of 4.9% compared to VND 2.1 million billion at the end of 2024.
The driving force that helped the capitalization of the entire industry increase was mainly due to the outstanding shares of the giant BIDV increasing by nearly 1.2 billion shares after the bank completed issuing bonus shares to shareholders.
The investment performance of banking stocks in 2024 shows that, despite many adjustments due to persistent net selling by foreign investors, a total of nearly 992 million units, worth nearly VND 19,300 billion, up 78% in quantity and 49% in value compared to 2023, stocks in this industry still recorded an increase of 23%, higher than the growth of the VN-Index (up 12.1%).
Entering 2025, high credit growth thanks to strong economic recovery, attractive valuations, and a booming real estate market are positive factors for banking stocks. Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) believes that banking industry profits will increase by 15% in 2025, but with strong differentiation.
Of which, state-owned banks are expected to grow by 12%, the most dynamic private banking group by 20%, and small-scale banks by about 8%. The net interest margin (NIM) of the banking sector will increase slightly thanks to stable deposit interest rates, limited room for output interest rate reduction, and expectations of a cooling exchange rate that will reduce interest rates in the interbank money market.
Private banks that are strong in retail and demand deposits (CASA), have good asset quality, and have a customer base with high debt repayment capacity... will have a lot of room to improve NIM.
VCBS experts assessed that the P/B valuation of the entire banking industry is currently about 9% lower than the 5-year average, while the industry's pre-tax profit in 2025 is expected to grow by about 15%, investors can consider long-term investment in bank stocks with good asset quality and maintaining a growth rate that exceeds the industry.
From his perspective, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, believes that there are some topics that will have a strong impact on the growth story of the banking stock group, which is the clearer recovery of the real estate group after the laws and resolutions come into effect, which will remove difficulties and obstacles, and the valuation of the banking industry is at a quite low level.
The prospect of upgrading the stock market from frontier to emerging market by the end of 2025 will also be a driving force for large-cap stocks, leading banks.
“Credit growth in 2025 could be maintained at 14-15%. The growth driver is low interest rates, which create momentum for the economy's demand for loans; retail credit accelerates, supported by the recovery of business and consumption activities, in addition to positive signals from home loans; wholesale credit is stable thanks to active production and export activities, accelerated public investment disbursement, and the recovery of the real estate market, thereby leading to credit growth for real estate, construction and building materials businesses,” said Dr. Phuong.
