The stock market stopped losing four consecutive sessions in yesterday's trading session, July 16. However, yesterday's rally was not convincing, and even showed that the upward momentum was quite weak. Closed with an increase, but the number of sectors with declines was completely overwhelming (16/21 industry groups decreased).
Liquidity improved quite well, equivalent to the 20-session average. Liquidity increased again, but the upward momentum narrowed towards the end of the session with a red candle body showing that selling pressure was still quite strong.
Foreign investors also strongly slowed down the net selling momentum when it decreased by nearly 90% in value compared to the previous day, the net selling value was only nearly 240 billion VND in yesterday's session and returned to actively disbursing FPT shares after a series of disbursement days. sell massively.
Yesterday's rally did not have enough momentum to form a more positive trend, the market is still in the accumulation channel. The notable highlight is the return of the group of stocks that played a leading role in the banking pillar group, which mostly closed up, with pharmaceutical stocks remaining stable, compensating for widespread profit-taking pressure. in yesterday's session.
This is also what investors are expecting when the profit picture of many industries in the second half of 2024 is more positive than the first half of the year, with motivation from non-financial groups. The prospect of non-financial group profit growth in the last 6 months of 2024 is supported by the low base level of the same period in 2023 as well as the results of the Government's policies to support production recovery and better prospects. from major economies around the world.
According to analysts of Bao Viet Securities Company (BVSC), pre-tax profits of 27 listed banks in the second quarter of 2024 are forecast to reach VND 72,021 billion, up 7% compared to the first quarter and increasing. 10% over the same period last year. The main growth drivers over the same period are improved credit, reduced credit costs and cost-to-income ratio.
Profit after tax of the wholesale commercial banking group is likely to grow higher than the retail group and state-owned banking group, mainly coming from good credit growth and reduced credit costs.
It is expected that the banking industry's profits (based on the group of banking stocks analyzed by BVSC) will increase by 14% in 2024 and increase by about 21% in 2025, with two main drivers including credit growth and quality. improved property.
Notably, deposit interest rates decreased in the first quarter and increased again from April 2024 due to the sharp increase in interbank market interest rates, to more than 5%/year. In the coming time, the increase in deposit interest rates is expected to be from 0.5 - 1%/year. However, deposit interest rates are difficult to increase so lending interest rates will not increase sharply.
Due to increased mobilization costs and weak credit growth, banks have to maintain low lending interest rates, so net interest margin in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 0.16%, to 3.31%. It is expected that net interest margin will recover thanks to more active credit.
Credit growth may reach 9.5% in the second half of the year, cumulatively for the whole year reaching 14%, in the context of economic prosperity, shown by PMI data, exports, and a "warm" real estate market. Gradually... Economic prosperity helps businesses improve business results, thereby reducing bad debt rates.
Recently, the decline in banking industry stock prices has pulled the 2024 P/B valuation of many banks to low levels since 2016 until now. With the prospect of profit recovery, in which banks' pre-tax profits plan to grow by about 20%, high dividend payout ratio..., stocks in this industry group with the largest market capitalization will likely attract flows. money back.
