Last week, the VN-Index officially reached the strong resistance level of 1,790 - 1,800 points. This means that after 2 consecutive weeks of increase in October, the adjustment week has taken place with a cumulative fluctuation around the 1,720 - 1,730 point area. Differentiation continues in the market.
This week, the VN-Index is likely to continue to fluctuate strongly at the beginning of the week, but will gradually stabilize, move sideways and accumulate around the support level of 1,700 points. The cash flow is expected to spread to many industry groups, instead of focusing only on the Vingroup or real estate group.
Although net selling pressure from foreign investors is still present, it has gradually decreased in the past 10 sessions, and net buying sessions have reappeared. This reflects the gradually stabilizing sentiment of foreign investors, cautiously optimistic, especially in the context of the exchange rate likely to soon stabilize when the expectation of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) was reinforced through the recent speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
When the VN-Index approached the 1,800-point threshold, the market experienced strong technical fluctuations, similar to previous peak periods. This fluctuation mainly comes from the circulation of cash flow between industry groups, from large-cap stocks to small and medium-sized stocks.
In each strong increase, the stock index moves up to higher points. It is normal for fluctuations around important resistance points that take place immediately after that. The stock market also needs to have accumulated and adjusted fluctuations.
In the large-cap group, cash flow is clearly changing direction: from real estate leaders such as VHM, VIC to banking, retail. The stagnation of these two major real estate codes creates conditions for the mid- and small-cap group in the industry to break out. The shift is positive, showing that cash flow spreads more widely. Liquidity remains good, the increase does not depend on a few leading stocks, thereby forming a sustainable accumulation base above the 1,750 point mark.
The market's large upward trend is still the main one. Only groups of stocks can replace each other to increase again to become a support for the general market. According to experts, playing a leading role in the market in the coming time will be the group of banking stocks when opening the third quarter 2025 business results reporting season with clear growth signals. Many analysis shows that credit growth in the whole industry is estimated at nearly 16%, the ability to complete the whole year's 20% target is feasible, in line with our forecast for GDP growth of 8.5%.
Some private joint stock commercial banks may achieve above-average growth. If the results of the third quarter are close to expectations, the banking industry can return to lead the VN-Index in the last 3 months of the year. In the short term, banking stocks are still the psychological support of the market.
Furthermore, with the GDP growth target in 2026 adjusted to 10%, the credit scale of the whole system can exceed 20%, creating a lot of room for industry profits. Although the net interest margin (NIM) is still under pressure due to the low interest rate orientation to support businesses and people, absolute profits can still increase thanks to expanded credit scale and bad debt control. Notable banks include VPB, MBB, TCB...
