The news that US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tax on imported goods from China has caused a stir among global investors. Gold prices increased, oil prices decreased by 4%, and US stocks were sold off in the weekend trading session.
At the end of the weekend session, the Dow Jones index decreased by 878.82 points, equivalent to 1.9%, to 45,479.6 points. The S&P 500 index fell 2.71%, to 6,552.51 points. The Nasdaq composite index also lost 3.56%, to 22,204.43 points.
In the face of this development, the investment community in Vietnam has also raised many concerns. On Vietnamese stock forums, many investors believe that this move could strongly affect the domestic market from the first trading session of next week.
Mr. N.T.C (38 years old, Hanoi), a long-time investor, commented: "If the US really imposes a 100% tax on Chinese goods, the US stock market will fluctuate very strongly, and this may spread to Vietnam. It is likely that investors will sell to reduce risks, especially stocks related to exports".
Another investor, Ms. L.H.N, also said: Emerging markets are often affected by the chain reaction from the US. If Wall Street declines sharply, defensive sentiment could make foreign investors sell net more strongly. I think the VN-Index could fluctuate strongly in the first session of the week, even appearing at a short-term sell-off".
Faced with these concerns, Ms. Nguyen Thao, an investment consultant at MBS Securities, said that Mr. Trump's announcement of a 100% tax on Chinese goods, for Vietnam, is both a challenge and an opportunity.
According to Ms. Thao, Vietnam can benefit in some areas. When Chinese goods are taxed 100% into the US, similar products from Vietnam will have a clear competitive advantage. Some industries such as textiles, footwear, wood furniture, electronics assembly, etc. could expand their market share in the US, she said.
Ms. Thao especially emphasized the advantage of Vonfram (tungsten), when Vietnam owns Nui Phao field - the second largest reserve in the world after China. In the context of China stopping exporting vonfram to the US, Vietnam has a great opportunity to replace this supply. Related enterprises such as Masan Group (MSN) can benefit greatly" - she said.
However, she also noted the negative impacts. When it cannot be exported to the US, cheap goods from China can flood to Vietnam, causing great pressure on domestic manufacturing enterprises. Competition in shipping will also be fierce, because the Chinese fleet has excess capacity and can lower tolls to gain market share from Vietnam to the US - Europe. Domestic shipping enterprises such as GMD, HAH, VSC, PVT, VOS, VIP, VTO may be affected, Ms. Thao analyzed.
In the short term, developments in the US market may cause foreign capital flows to temporarily stagnate instead of withdrawing strongly from Vietnam. If the US fluctuates deeply, foreign investors may temporarily stop withdrawing capital, helping the Vietnamese market to be more stable. However, psychological fluctuations are inevitable" - Ms. Thao said.
According to Ms. Thao, Mr. Trump's decision to impose a 100% tax opens up great opportunities for Vietnam in export industries to replace China, but also poses great challenges in cheap goods and logistics competition. If Vietnam manages imports well and makes the most of Vonframs advantages, this could be a golden time to accelerate exports and increase its position in the global supply chain, Thao emphasized.
