In the past week of flourishing trading after FTSE Russell officially announced the upgrading of the Vietnamese stock market, cash flow spread quite positively among major industry groups such as banking and real estate. Notably, the group of stocks surnamed Vingroup continued to be the focus with VRE (+23.21% in the week), VHM (+23%) becoming the main driving force contributing to the strong increase of the index.
The trading day of the weekend ended, bringing many investors' expectations for a brilliant future for the Vietnamese stock market when the general index suddenly approached the 1,750 point mark. Liquidity also showed signs of a more positive improvement, showing that cash flow is gradually returning and supporting the market's increase.
Forecasting the trading trend in the new week, analysts from Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) said that the VN-Index recorded an impressive week of increase with the lead in the bluechips group. However, the momentum in the large-cap group has not spread strongly to the market when most stocks are still in the process of accumulating or re-testing supporting areas. Accordingly, cash flow is also differentiated.
VCBS recommends that investors can maintain or consider increasing the proportion of available stocks in the portfolio when these stocks have signs of convincing resistance. At the same time, investors should take advantage of the cash flow circulation, selectively and disburse with the goal of short-term investment in stocks in the group that is attracting the attention of cash flow with clear signs of increased liquidity in active purchases.
Asean Securities Company maintains that the VN-Index may increase continuously at the beginning of next session with the next target around 1,760 points. However, the fluctuations and fluctuations may soon return due to the net selling effect of foreign investors in addition to the possibility of forming a pull-back state of the index. Investors holding stocks can maintain their current position, especially with representatives maintaining an upward trend along with safe capital prices.
In the context of a vibrant market, the question of whether the market can "collapse" like the period of 2021-2022 is still a concern of at least 70% of investors today. Responding to this issue, experts say that fluctuations in the increase cycle are inevitable, and the 5-10% corrections are completely normal.
According to the assessment of SGI Capital analysts, although foreign investors have net sold more than VND 110,000 billion since the beginning of the year, the VN-Index remains strong, showing the strength of domestic cash flow. If Vietnam is upgraded by FTSE in September 2026, passive funds can allocate about 1.5 billion USD from March 2027, while capital flows from active funds can be larger depending on market attractiveness.
However, with the current scale of capitalization and liquidity, the fact that several billion USD will be poured in in in 6-12 months " no longer has the decisive role in market trends". The vibrant market has helped businesses IPO and issue nearly VND40,000 billion in the third quarter of 2025. However, domestic newly paid cash flow is stagnating, while the pressure of divestment from foreign investors, domestic shareholders and demand for issuing capital increased sharply, causing market liquidity to decrease significantly.
SGI Capital said that with margin increasing to record levels at many securities companies, the market needs new cash flow to maintain the upward momentum in the last months of the year.
Upgrading is great news, but we should not expect foreign cash flow to pour in. The decisive factor in the market's upward trend is still macroeconomic stability - the environment that helps businesses expand operations and grow sustainable profits for shareholders. Upgrading is a necessary condition, but the quality of goods and the attractiveness of businesses are enough conditions for Vietnam to attract long-term foreign capital, said analysts from SGI Capital.
