According to updated information from BSC Research, Dat Xanh Group Corporation (Dat Xanh Group, code: DXG) has just successfully applied for a construction permit for the DXH Riverside project (commercial name is Gem Riverside) in Ho Chi Minh City.
Accordingly, on September 12, 2024, the above project was granted a construction permit according to the new 1/500 planning criteria including 12 tower blocks and 3,175 apartments.
Notably, this project was deployed and opened for sale by the enterprise in 2018 according to the original plan (8 towers, 2,100 apartments) with about 1,000 products, average selling price of 37-40 million VND/m2, but was later withdrawn when the project's planning was adjusted in the direction of increasing the population density and construction density to 12 towers, 3,175 apartments.
Up to now, there are about 300 products that the company is accelerating to recover by refunding money to customers, with interest support and applying a discount of about 15% when DXH Riverside reopens for sale in case customers continue to accompany.
The project is expected to start construction in the first quarter of 2025, after completing negotiations with old customers and meeting the conditions for opening for sale in the second quarter of 2025, bringing revenue to the business in the next 3 years with a total estimated revenue value of VND 28,131 billion and total net profit from the project estimated at about VND 12,029 billion.
BSC Research forecasts that the total new sales value of Dat Xanh Group in 2025 will reach VND 9,543 billion after 2 years 2023-2024 without recording any project sales, mainly from DXH Riverside.
In addition, the company's key projects such as Opal Luxury, DXH Park View and DXH Park City are all located in Binh Duong province, are in the process of completing legal procedures, and are expected to be launched in the market in the period of 2026-2028.
However, in a less positive scenario, the new opening prices and opening times at the Gem Sky World and DXH Riverside projects may not be as expected.
For Gem Sky World, according to BSC Research's analysis, the secondary price of land around the project area is currently fluctuating around 18-22 million VND/m2, a discount of 26%-40% compared to the second opening price of Dat Xanh Group at the time of "land fever" in 2022. In addition, the problem of slow completion of project legal procedures may affect the time and new opening price of Gem Sky World in the near future.
Regarding the DXH Riverside project, according to information shared by the business, after opening for sale more than 1,000 products in 2018, there are currently about 300 products at DXH Riverside that are in the process of accelerating recovery.
BSC Research believes that although the legal risks in this process are not many, the opening time for sale may be longer than expected in case old customers do not agree to terminate the contract and other disputes arise.
The DXH Riverside project accounts for 47% of the total revaluation value of the enterprise's assets. Therefore, if this project is eligible for implementation in 2025, it will be a driving force to "unlock" DXG's stock valuation, along with the prospect of large profits and cash flows from the project in the near future.
