The stock market is in a slight adjustment stage when encountering a resistance of 1,250 points, combined with the resting mentality of investors when the long holiday occasion is approaching, making the general motivation become quiet.
On the other hand, the weakening cash flow also comes from concerns that unusual developments in the world market may arise during the domestic market's holiday.
The high level of differentiation between stock lines will continue as businesses are revealing their 2024 business results and 2025 plans. Among them, there is a great deal of interest in the "king" group of stocks, the banking industry.
Strong credit growth is the main factor helping to significantly improve the profits of many banks. The leading bank in the billion-dollar profit club in 2024 is still expected to be the "Big 4" group's eldest brother - Vietcombank, with an estimated pre-tax profit of VND43,000 billion, up nearly 5% compared to 2023.
Three other banks in the group also estimated positive profits: BIDV estimated pre-tax profit of more than VND30,000 billion, up 12.4%; Agribank estimated pre-tax profit of nearly VND28,000 billion, up over 8%; VietinBank is likely to exceed the planned profit of VND26,300 billion.
In the private banking sector, many banks are also announcing quite impressive profit figures. For example, MBBank is expected to lead the billion-dollar profit group in 2024, with consolidated pre-tax profit estimated at nearly VND29,000 billion, up 9-10%.
Next is Techcombank, estimated to exceed the target pre-tax profit of VND27,100 billion. Following the billion-dollar group is ACB with an estimated pre-tax profit of VND22,000 billion, HDBank is VND16,000 billion..., all reaching or exceeding the 2024 plan.
Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) believes that banking industry profits will increase by 15% in 2025, but there will be strong differentiation.
Of which, state-owned banks are expected to grow by 12%, the most dynamic private banking group will grow by 20%, and small-scale banks will grow by about 8%.
The banking sector's net interest margin (NIM) will increase slightly thanks to stable deposit interest rates, limited room to reduce output interest rates, and expectations that the exchange rate will cool down, leading to a reduction in interest rates in the interbank money market.
According to experts, the main theme of banking stocks in 2025 is high economic growth, a clearer recovery of the real estate group (after the laws and resolutions come into effect, difficulties and obstacles will be removed) and the valuation of the banking industry is at a fairly low level.
The biggest driver is the recovery of the real estate industry. Real estate recovery will help banks improve bad debt, increase asset quality and improve NIM.
Regarding the stock market movement trend before the Lunar New Year holiday, experts from SHS Securities Company commented that the short-term trend of VN-Index is under correction pressure when encountering a strong resistance zone of 1,255-1,260 points, corresponding to the highest price zone in 2023 and the average price of 200 sessions.
Meanwhile, the VN30 group is under pressure to retest the 200-session average price zone. If VN30 fails to maintain this support zone, short-term sentiment may become more negative and selling pressure may increase more strongly.
With a more optimistic perspective, experts from Yuanta Securities Company expressed the view that the market may continue to adjust in the coming sessions and the VN-Index may fluctuate in the range of 1,240 - 1,245 points.
"The VNMidcaps index has a positive performance with high liquidity, showing that cash flow is mainly concentrated in the Mid Caps group. At the same time, the market is in a correction phase after the previous increase and therefore it can be assessed that short-term risks continue to decrease. The short-term sentiment indicator continues to increase, showing that new buying opportunities continue to increase," Yuanta experts commented.
