The Vietnamese stock market had a good week of recovery after a series of drops of more than 40 points in the first weeks of 2025.
After touching the 1,220-point threshold on the first trading day of the week, bottom-fishing demand returned, especially the leadership of pillar stocks, helping VN-Index have 4/5 increasing sessions and end the week at 1,249.11 points. However, cash flow still showed signs of caution as liquidity continued to remain low. In addition, the strong increase in net selling pressure from foreign investors was a major obstacle, making the market outlook still unpredictable.
Foreign investors increased their net selling momentum with a value of more than VND4,784 billion on both exchanges last week. Of which, foreign investors net sold nearly VND4,726 billion on the HOSE and net sold nearly VND59 billion on the HNX.
Traditionally, January is an important month and has an impact on investor sentiment for the entire year. However, the January 2025 scenario paints a relatively grim picture, with a decline of about 4% year-to-date, which could very well usher in a difficult year.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Investment Director of DG Capital - said that this is different from the usual trend of increasing by about 5% in January. This expert recommends that if the decline slows down this week (January 13 - 17) and begins to recover next week (January 20 - 24), investors can buy again. At the same time, expecting a lot in the coming February, with a positive scenario will create more optimism. On the contrary, if the picture continues to be bad, it will be very dangerous. Liquidity of the stock market is also expected to return after Tet.
According to analysts, in the current context, the Vietnamese stock market is trading at a trailing P/E of about 13.3 times, which is quite attractive compared to other emerging markets in ASEAN and some other developed markets in the world. Despite rising geopolitical tensions and global economic instability, the Vietnamese economy has shown a positive GDP growth rate in 2024.
With a favorable macroeconomic outlook, many experts predict that overall market earnings could grow 18% in 2025 after growing 16% in 2024. As a result, the predicted P/E for 2025 is around 11.3x in the base case, giving investors an opportunity to start making profits.
According to VNDIRECT Research, Vietnam has the “tailwinds” to be optimistic in the coming time. Many policies to support public investment or attract high-quality FDI are being accelerated to promote economic growth, helping Vietnam move towards the goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045. In fact, GDP per capita may surpass 5,000 USD in 2025, marking the starting point of the disposable income boom.
However, in the short term, the stock market seems to be moving sideways, accumulating and waiting for important support factors in the context of investors being more or less concerned about the US-China trade relationship in the coming time.
