The Vietnamese stock market had a good recovery week after a series of drops of more than 40 points in the previous 2 weeks.
After touching the 1,220 point threshold, bottom-fishing demand returned, especially the leadership of pillar stocks helped VN-Index have 4 out of 5 increasing sessions and ended the week at 1,249.11 points.
However, cash flow remains cautious as liquidity remains low. On the HOSE, the average matched volume reached nearly 459 million shares per session, down 5% from last week.
In contrast, average liquidity on HNX increased slightly by 3%, reaching more than 47.5 million shares/session.
In addition, the strong increase in net selling pressure from foreign investors is a major obstacle. Last week, foreign investors increased their net selling with a value of up to nearly 5,000 billion VND, in which one large code was sold for thousands of billions of VND.
According to statistics on the HOSE floor, foreign investors have been net sellers for 5 consecutive sessions. In total, this group has net sold 117.05 million units, with a total net selling value of VND4,689.92 billion, an increase of more than 2.5 times in volume and nearly 3.5 times in value compared to the previous week.
On the HNX floor, foreign investors net bought for only one session on January 16 and net sold for 4 sessions.
In total, this group sold 4.42 million units net during the week, with a total net selling value of VND48.76 billion, up 8% in volume and 10.5% in value compared to the previous week.
In terms of influence, large-cap stocks play an important role in pushing the VN-Index up.
Leading the way were two bank stocks TCB and VCB, contributing 1.7 points and 1.5 points to the index, respectively. Other bank stocks such as LPB, HDB and BID also performed positively.
Analysts from securities companies are expecting the market to continue its upward momentum in the coming sessions.
At the same time, if the recovery continues, the market may enter a short-term accumulation phase, meaning that short-term risks continue to decrease.
In addition, the sentiment indicator continues to rise, showing that investors are gradually becoming more optimistic and new buying opportunities are gradually increasing.
Experts also said that it is normal for the market to bottom out at the 1,220 point area and return to the 1,250 point area without falling to 1,200 points.
The simple factor to determine that the market will not continue to decline is that the selling pressure in large stocks is gradually decreasing, the buying pressure in basic stocks such as banking, construction and materials, chemicals, consumer goods... is good and especially the group of securities stocks has shown signs of forming an upward bottom.
This can be considered the bottom, the valley of the market to gradually go up in late January and the first quarter of 2025.
Regarding the story of foreign net selling that has not decreased, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, commented that in theory, foreign investors will not sell strongly in 2025 because they have actually sold net for the past two years and the peak was in 2024, so there will be little need to sell more.
However, foreign cash flow in 2025 will still be unknown, because Mr. Donald Trump's new policy focuses on tariff tools, creating a tariff war between countries.
In 2025, we need to observe Donald Trump's policy. If it is "raise high, hit lightly", the possibility of foreign net selling will be very low and may switch to net buying, but if Trump imposes drastic taxes, foreign investors will still be net sellers, but not as strong as in 2024.
“On the contrary, it must also be considered that if the Vietnamese stock market is officially upgraded as planned, the ability to attract large capital flows is very strong.
The cash flow of investment funds to the Frontier Market is not large, but when it is upgraded to the Secondary Emerging Market, the fund size from several billion USD, corresponding to many times more than before, is easy to encounter," Dr. Phuong stated his opinion.
