The stock market entered today's trading session (September 16) in a state of stalemate when approaching the resistance zone of 1,830-1,840 points. Cash flow has not really returned strongly, but is still circulating between some stock groups, with oil and gas being the group attracting attention.
At the end of the trading session, VN-Index decreased by 1.04 points to 1,810 points. Market breadth with red leading when the selling side had 360 declining stocks and the buying side had 301 increasing stocks. Similarly, green and red colors interspersed in the VN30 basket with 16 declining stocks, 11 increasing stocks and 3 reference stocks.
Market liquidity decreased compared to the previous trading session, with the matched order trading volume of VN-Index reaching more than 592 million shares, equivalent to a value of more than 14,845 billion VND.
Regarding foreign investors' transactions, this block continued to net buy more than 243 billion VND on the HOSE exchange. The most notable focus on HOSE is SSB stock. After 4 consecutive increasing sessions with a total increase of more than 18%, including 2 ceiling increase sessions, this stock suffered strong profit-taking pressure and at one point was pulled down to the floor price of 19,450 VND. However, demand quickly absorbed supply, helping SSB reverse sharply and close at the ceiling price of 22,350 VND, with more than 6.2 million units traded.
Current market developments show that cash flow is no longer concentrated only in the oil and gas group but has spread to banks, stocks and real estate.
However, liquidity is trending downwards. This shows that cash flow is not really in agreement with the index's recovery, and the increase of some individual stocks is not enough to create a spreading momentum across the entire market.
The "concentration" of cash flow also reflects a cautious sentiment after a significant recovery. Capital flow tends to be more selective, prioritizing stocks with high liquidity, good fundamentals and a clear growth story. Foreign capital also moves similarly when net buying in VN30 but net selling is quite clear in the mid- and small-cap group. Even with the group expected to benefit from upgrades, foreign investors' transactions are also differentiated by stock instead of buying simultaneously.
The condensation is also clearly shown in the liquidity structure. In some sessions, the real estate group accounted for more than 30% of the total transaction value, surpassing banks by about 26%. Only these two groups accounted for more than 56% of the total transaction value of the whole market, in which the increase of VIC and VHM played a significant role.
In the opposite direction, technology, retail and healthcare still account for less than 3% of the total transaction value of each industry. This is a sign that large cash flow is not ready to be widely distributed.
Part of the reason comes from capital costs. Margin interest rates are commonly in the range of 13.5-14%/year. High capital costs make it difficult for cash flow to maintain long-term positions in stocks lacking liquidity or not having strong enough catalysts.
Technically, VN-Index continues to maintain above the 1,800 point zone, but the fact that the index closed almost sideways in the context of reduced liquidity shows that demand is not strong enough to confirm a new uptrend.
The index closing at 1,810.11 points, significantly higher than the lowest zone in the fluctuation, shows that bottom-fishing demand is still present, however, there is not enough basis to see this as a signal confirming the upward trend again.
In the short term, if it maintains the 1,780 point mark, VN-Index may attract more demand and gradually recover to the short-term peak of 1,880 points. Conversely, losing this support zone will increase the risk of correction, with the next target zone around 1,700-1,720 points.
In the coming sessions, the 1,830-1,840 point zone will continue to be an area to observe, because this is a near resistance zone that VN-Index cannot overcome after the recovery phase.
