Unexpected forecast of gasoline prices in the operating period on February 20

Thạch Lam |

According to the forecast, gasoline prices may fluctuate in different directions if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to a survey at 2:40 p.m. on February 18 (Vietnam time), WTI oil price increased by 0.66 USD/barrel (0.93%), to 71.37 USD/barrel. Brent oil prices also increased by 0.1 USD/barrel (0.13%), to 75.32 USD/barrel.

According to Reuters, Brent crude oil prices increased on Tuesday, continuing the increase in the previous session after a drone attack on an oil pumping station in Russia reduced traffic from Kazakhstan. However, the increase is limited due to the prospect of improved supply soon.

"The main theme driving oil prices recently is supply expectations. With prices weakening in recent weeks, information about Kazakhstan's attack on the export pipeline in Russia has created a catalyst to help relieve pessimism," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said in an email.

The attack on the Kropotkinskaya plant in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia has reduced the amount of goods transported from Kazakhstan to world markets, including large companies such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

operator Caspian pipeline Consortium said on Monday that the plan to transport CPC Blend Black Sea oil in February will not change.

BMI analysts said in a note that they expect Brent oil prices to average $76/barrel by 2025, down 5% from the average in 2024, due to demand-excess supply in the market, along with tariffs and trade tensions.

According to a report by Russian state media, OPEC+ producers do not plan to delay a series of monthly oil supply increases expected to begin in April. Previously, in December, OPEC postponed plans to start increasing production to April due to weak demand and increased supply from outside the group.

The market is also waiting to see whether peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will bring results, as US and Russian officials are scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia later on Tuesday.

"There seems to be many concerns about the crude oil market, the biggest factor at present is the results of negotiations with Ukraine. Russian crude oil could return to a legitimate market share, although there are still many variables in the final outcome," said Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby.

According to a representative of a petroleum business, domestic petroleum prices will fluctuate according to the world petroleum situation. According to current market developments, it is forecasted that in the next price management period, gasoline prices may adjust in opposite directions in the direction of increasing gasoline prices and decreasing oil prices.

Of which, gasoline price is forecast to increase by about 200-250 VND/liter; oil price decreased slightly by about 50 VND/liter.

In the adjustment period of February 13, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by 156 VND/liter to 20,598 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline increased by 146 VND/liter to 21,074 VND/liter.

Prices of oil products have also increased simultaneously. Of which, diesel 0.05S is priced at VND19,573/liter (up VND19/liter); kerosene has a new price of VND19,53/liter (up VND59/liter); mazut is priced at VND17,779/kg (up VND425/kg).

Thạch Lam
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Thạch Lam |

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Thạch Lam |

According to the forecast, gasoline prices may decrease slightly if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

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Thạch Lam |

Gasoline prices increased simultaneously from 3:00 p.m. today (February 13), after adjustments by the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance.