The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI)'s Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that, in the operating period tomorrow, December 26, the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by 372 VND to 19,868 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by 383 VND to 20,617 VND/liter.
VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices this period will tend to decrease slightly, in which kerosene may decrease by 1.2% to VND18,725/liter, diesel may decrease by 1% to 18,541 VND/liter, and fuel oil may decrease by 0.1% to 15,881 VND/kg.
VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this time. If the forecast is correct, the price of RON 95 gasoline will reverse to decrease after two consecutive increases.
In the world market, Asian oil prices increased in the session on December 24, in contrast to the decrease in the previous session thanks to a somewhat positive short-term market outlook, despite sparse trading activities before the Christmas holiday.
The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) recent short-term energy outlook (STEO) has shifted the 2025 liquid oil supply balance to a deficit, even though the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, continue to return some oil to the market in 2025, according to Neil Crosby, vice president of oil analysis at Sparta Commodities.
In addition, China, the world’s largest oil importer, is stepping up fiscal stimulus to revive its weakening economy, which could provide short-term support for WTI at 67 USD/barrel.
In addition, on the side of the world's largest oil consumer, the US economy is on a solid growth path as it nears the end of 2024, which will also be an important factor supporting oil prices.
In the most recent adjustment period (December 19), the prices of all types of gasoline and oil were adjusted up. Accordingly, the price of E5 gasoline was adjusted up by 380 VND/liter, to 20,240 VND/liter. The price of RON 95 gasoline increased by 410 VND/liter, the selling price was 21,000 VND/liter. Similarly, the price of diesel oil increased by 480 VND/liter, the selling price was 18,730 VND/liter.
