The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts that Vietnam's GDP growth will slow down due to declining foreign investment and exports under the impact of global policy instability. OECD believes that Vietnam's GDP is estimated to reach 6.2% this year and 6% next year.
Although the GDP growth rate is expected to slow down, Vietnam's economy is still assessed to have a positive outlook in the period of 2025-2026 and is significantly higher than that of countries in the region.
According to a newly updated report by OECD, private consumption in Vietnam will remain high in the context of real salary increases. The plan to increase public investment will support domestic investment, but foreign investment flows are expected to weaken. As an economy that depends on trade, Vietnam will still be greatly affected by external developments.
The OECD recommends that reducing foreign ownership barriers in service sectors will boost FDI flows. Social benefits such as pensions are still lacking in consistency in the context of high informal labor rates.
Therefore, Vietnam needs a synchronous reform program to expand social allowances. At the same time, it is necessary to maintain strong motivations to create official jobs, support the ability to recover from shocks and improve productivity.
Reducing emissions from electricity production by gradually eliminating coal-fired thermal power plants and accelerating the development of renewable energy will be a key factor for more sustainable growth.
According to the OECD, foreign-invested enterprises are growth drivers but have few links to domestic enterprises. Increasing investment in higher education can help promote these linkages and improve productivity, combined with enhancing competition in the service sector, thereby creating a more equal playground between the private sector and state-owned enterprises.
Previously, in the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update Report for April 2025, the World Bank (WB) forecast that Vietnam's real GDP will reach a growth rate of 5.8% in 2025.
In early April, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast that Vietnam's GDP will increase by 6.6% in 2025 and reach 6.5% in 2026, after a strong increase of 7.1% in 2024. Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty - ADB Country Director in Vietnam assessed that strong trade growth, export production recovery and active FDI inflows are the main driving forces to boost Vietnam's economy in 2024.
