Forecast of gasoline price increase in the next adjustment session

Anh Tuấn |

Gasoline prices at the adjustment period on November 28 are forecast to increase by about 400 VND/liter.

On the morning of November 26, world oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude falling by 2.16 USD, or 2.87%, to 73.01 USD/barrel; while WTI crude also lost 2.3 USD, or 3.23%, to 68.94 USD/barrel.

Speaking with Lao Dong, a representative of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange - MXV said that at the end of yesterday's trading session, oil prices fell sharply after news that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to some terms of the agreement to end the conflict between Israel and the Hezbollah armed forces.

Israel also said its cabinet will meet today (November 26) to approve a ceasefire with Hezbollah. The prospect of a ceasefire agreement has dispelled concerns about disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, thereby putting pressure on world oil prices.

In addition, the agreement will reduce the likelihood that the Trump administration will tighten sanctions on Iran's oil sector in January 2025, according to Rob Thummel, a portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital.

The agreement by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia, to a ceasefire would give the US less reason to pressure the Tehran government, reducing the risk of disruptions to oil supplies from Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which currently produces 3.5 million barrels per day.

The prospect of abundant supply amid a lackluster oil market has put pressure on oil prices yesterday.

The US is also preparing for the Thanksgiving holiday, so industrial production, commercial transportation and goods trading activities may decline, thereby weakening demand and pushing oil prices down.

For the domestic market, gasoline prices are currently linked to the world market, so according to the forecast of some gasoline distribution and trading enterprises in Hanoi, in the next adjustment session (Thursday, November 28, 2024), gasoline prices are expected to increase simultaneously.

Of which, E5 RON 92 gasoline is forecast to increase by 600 VND/liter; Ron 95 gasoline is forecast to increase by 450 VND/liter; DO oil is forecast to increase by 360 VND/liter. The above forecast prices do not take into account the authorities' allocation or use of the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund. In case the regulatory agency uses it, the gasoline price will increase less.

On November 26, retail gasoline prices according to the price list announced by Petrolimex in regions 1 and 2 (46 provinces and cities currently applying) are as follows:

Gia xang dau trong nuoc ngay 25.11 theo bang gia cong bo cua Petrolimex. Anh: Anh Tuan
Domestic gasoline prices on November 25 according to the price list announced by Petrolimex. Photo: Anh Tuan

The above domestic retail prices of gasoline and oil were adjusted by the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade in the price management session on the afternoon of November 21. Accordingly, most gasoline and oil products decreased simultaneously. The price of E5 RON 92 gasoline decreased the most, by 109 VND/liter. RON 95-III gasoline decreased by 79 VND/liter, diesel oil decreased by 64 VND/liter, kerosene decreased by 67 VND/liter. Only fuel oil increased by 5 VND/kg.

Anh Tuấn
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