Growth drivers operate positively together
Vietnam's economy in the first 5 months of 2026 recorded many positive signs as consumption recovered, investment expanded, and exports continued to grow positively.
The Statistics Office said that in the first 5 months of 2026, IIP increased by 9.1%, import and export reached 445.12 billion USD, the number of newly established and re-operating enterprises increased by 27.6%. Registered FDI reached 24.81 billion USD, investment capital from the State budget reached 254.1 trillion VND.
Talking to Lao Dong, Dr. Le Duy Binh - Director of Economica Vietnam - said that the most notable point in the current economic picture is that traditional growth drivers are being maintained and promoted effectively.
According to Mr. Binh, import and export continued to grow strongly, public investment was maintained, FDI increased, while the production and business activities of the business sector also recorded many positive changes. In particular, domestic consumption is emerging as the biggest bright spot of the economy in the first 5 months of the year.
Data from the Statistics Office shows that total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue reached 3,185 trillion VND, an increase of 11.2% compared to the same period last year; if excluding price factors, it still increased by 6.1%. "Personal consumption and domestic consumption are the biggest bright spots in the first 5 months of the year. This is a very strong driving force supporting economic growth" - Dr. Le Duy Binh emphasized.
According to Dr. Le Duy Binh, domestic consumption recovery is creating momentum for growth, production, investment and business. Although the trade balance has a trade deficit of 13.8 billion USD, this is not necessarily a negative signal if looking at the import structure. According to Mr. Binh, the current trade deficit mainly comes from the demand for importing machinery, equipment, raw materials and production materials, accounting for 94.1% of total import turnover. This shows that businesses are expanding production capacity, preparing for a new growth cycle.
Preparing production capacity for a new growth phase
Besides the positive signs, economic experts also believe that the economy still faces some challenges that need to be closely monitored in the last months of the year.
A fairly large trade deficit may create additional pressure on the exchange rate and interest rate level if this trend persists. Along with that, inflation is showing signs of being more tense than last year. According to the Statistics Office, the average CPI in the first 5 months of the year increased by 4.31% compared to the same period last year.
Unpredictable developments from the world economy, especially geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fluctuations in input material prices, may continue to put pressure on production costs and domestic prices.
To maintain growth momentum, Vietnam needs to continue to consolidate existing drivers, especially domestic consumption, private investment and business production capacity. As geopolitical instability gradually cools down, world market demand may recover more positively. Therefore, the economy needs to be better prepared in terms of production capacity, productivity and operational efficiency to be ready to welcome new growth opportunities.
In addition, improving the business environment, strengthening the confidence of businesses and investors, promoting the spirit of entrepreneurship, and removing barriers to production and business activities will be of particular importance in unlocking private investment resources.
Consumption, investment and export, along with prosperity, are identified as an important foundation for Vietnam to maintain growth momentum, while preparing for a new development cycle based more on productivity, innovation and science and technology.
