Domestic coffee prices
According to market records, the price of raw coffee beans in the Central Highlands provinces in the morning session of May 4, 2026 recorded a simultaneous decrease of 900 to 1,000 VND per kg.
Specifically, the average price for the whole region is currently at 85.600 VND per kg, equivalent to a decrease of 900 VND compared to the most recent trading session.
In Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price retreated to 85,700 VND per kg, although losing 900 VND, it still maintained its position as the locality with the highest price in the region. Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both recorded a price of 85,600 VND per kg after a decrease of 900 VND compared to the data of the previous two days.
Meanwhile, the Lam Dong area witnessed the strongest adjustment of up to 1,000 VND, pushing the purchase price down to the lowest level in the region at 85,000 VND per kg.
World coffee prices
Contrary to the deep decline of the domestic market, world coffee prices in the nearest closing session recorded glimmering recovery signals from the 1.5-week low.
On the New York exchange, Arabica futures prices for delivery in July 2026 closed at 286.40 cents/pound, recording an increase of 0.85 cents.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee for the same term also edged up by $3, reaching $3,364 per ton.
The main driving force supporting coffee prices to recover came from the USD index falling to its lowest level in two weeks, triggering speculative funds to boost short buys.
In addition, inventory reports recording record lows are also supporting buyers, as Arabica inventories monitored by ICE fell to a 2-month low of 494,508 bags and Robusta inventories hit a 16-month low of 3,755 lots. In addition, prolonged concerns about the closure of themuz Strait due to geopolitical tensions continue to tighten global supply through increased transportation, insurance and fertilizer costs.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Despite recording a short-term technical recovery, coffee price prospects are still under heavy pressure from macroeconomic forecasts about a record surplus crop year.
Coffee Trading Academy forecasts that Brazil's 2027 crop harvest output will increase sharply by 12% compared to the previous year, reaching 71.4 million bags. Even Marex Group Plc gave a more ambitious figure of 75.9 million bags, an increase of 15.5% compared to the same period last year.
In that context, StoneX forecasts that the global coffee surplus in 2026 will expand to 10 million bags, marking the largest surplus in the past 6 years.
In Vietnam, export activities were vibrant with 585,000 tons in the first quarter, an increase of 14% compared to the previous year, which is also a factor hindering the strong increase in Robusta prices.
According to forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture, world production in the 2025 crop year is expected to reach a record 178.848 million bags, signaling a challenging period for prices as supply gradually becomes abundant on a global scale.
