Domestic coffee prices today
The domestic coffee market this morning, May 3rd, recorded a slight positive upturn after a series of days of deep downward pressure.
According to the latest updated data, the average purchase price for the entire Central Highlands region is currently anchored at the threshold of 86,500 VND/kg, a slight increase of 100 VND compared to the previous trading session.
In Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces, the current price reached 86,500 VND/kg, while Dak Nong (old) maintained its highest position in the region at 86,600 VND/kg. Lam Dong region recorded slightly lower prices, fluctuating around the threshold of 86,000 VND/kg.
Although this increase cannot completely compensate for the decline of the past week, this is a signal that the market is making efforts to find a new balance point as the holidays gradually close.
World coffee prices
On the international front, green color returned in the closing session at the end of the week thanks to the relief effect from the decline of the USD. The Dollar Index ($DXY) falling to its lowest level in 2 weeks has triggered hedge funds to carry out a short covering wave on both futures exchanges.
Specifically, July Arabica futures price in New York has recovered by 0.85 cents (+0.30%), reaching 286.40 cents/lb.
At the same time, Robusta prices in London also slightly increased by 3 USD (+0.09%) to close the session at 3,364 USD/ton. This increase is important as it helps prices escape the lowest level in 1.5 weeks, which has been heavily burdened by pessimistic forecasts about global oversupply.
Coffee price assessment
Looking deeper into macroeconomic factors, the market is currently witnessing a fierce tug-of-war between the pressure of abundant supply in the future and the actual shortage of goods.
On the one hand, major organizations continuously release "huge" figures about Brazil's 2026/27 crop season, with forecasts ranging from 71.4 million to nearly 76 million sacks, creating concerns about a global surplus of up to 10 million sacks.
On the other hand, Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange fell to a 2-month low (494,508 bags) and Robusta inventories also remained at a 16-month low (3,755 lots). This real tightening, combined with concerns that the Hormuz Strait continues to be closed, causing logistics and fertilizer costs to increase, is playing the role of a "protective net" preventing coffee prices from falling freely.
Besides coffee, pepper prices today still maintain heat at the threshold of 143,000 VND/kg, while the USD/VND exchange rate is stable at 26,108. Forecast for next week, when the market enters the official trading sessions of May, coffee prices are likely to continue to fluctuate strongly as investors balance the prospect of a bumper crop in Brazil and the complicated geopolitical situation that increases sea transport costs.
