Global crude oil and oil product inventories are decreasing at record speed this month as the conflict in the Middle East drags on, seriously disrupting energy supplies, according to the latest assessment from Goldman Sachs.
In a report on May 20, Goldman Sachs experts said that global tangible oil inventories have decreased by an average of 8.7 million barrels/day since the beginning of May, nearly double the average rate since the conflict broke out.
The physical oil market continues to tighten as oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are currently only about 5% compared to normal," the analysis team said.
The Strait of Hormuz - the world's strategic energy transport route is currently affected by control and blockade measures from both Iran and the United States.
The global energy market is experiencing an unprecedented supply shock due to prolonged warfare. This has caused oil reserves accumulated before the crisis to continuously decrease, while many countries have also had to coordinate strategic stockpiling to curb oil price increases.
Last week, International Energy Agency (IEA) CEO Fatih Birol also warned that global commercial oil inventories are decreasing rapidly.
The IEA also forecasts that the oil market may continue to fall into a "serious shortage" situation at least until October, even if the conflict cools down soon.
According to Goldman Sachs, about 2/3 of the inventory decline in May came from a sharp decrease in sealift oil, as exports plummeted faster than imports.
The bank said that the weakening import situation is no longer limited to Asia but has spread to Europe. Aviation fuel alone imported into Europe is currently about 60% lower than the 2025 average.
However, Goldman Sachs noted that, from March to now, global oil inventories have decreased by an average of about 4.6 million barrels/day but are generally still close to the same level as the same period last year thanks to large reserves accumulated in the 9 months before the war broke out.
In China - the world's largest crude oil importer, oil refineries are showing "lack of interest" in crude oil purchases as imports sharply decrease.
Goldman Sachs said that fuel sales in China fell by about 22% last month, partly due to weakening economic activity.
In the US, official data shows that total crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), decreased by a record 17.8 million barrels in just the previous week as oil exports increased sharply.
Meanwhile, oil storage in Cushing Center, Oklahoma - an important US oil delivery point - continued to fall to near the technical minimum level.
Goldman Sachs also noted that the tourism season in the US officially starts from the end of this week, which may continue to support the demand for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel consumption in the coming time.
Brent oil prices are currently trading around 105.13 USD/barrel on Thursday's session. Although it has increased by more than 70% since the beginning of the year, oil prices are still significantly lower than the peak of over 126 USD/barrel set during the most intense escalation of the conflict.
