Gold and silver prices recovered slightly in the first trading session of the week in the US when bottom-fishing buying appeared after a recent sharp decline, although the market is still under pressure from rising oil prices, high US bond yields and tensions related to the Strait of Hormuz.
As of the beginning of Monday's US session, spot gold prices rose about 0.3% to 4,552.80 USD/ounce, while spot silver prices rose 1.23% to 76.77 USD/ounce.
However, the current macroeconomic context is still not really favorable for non-profit precious metals.
Gold prices are recovering from a six-week low, but the upward momentum continues to be limited by inflationary pressure as oil prices remain above the 100 USD/barrel mark, the USD strengthens, and US bond yields remain around 4.6%.
According to the interest rate futures market, investors are now starting to consider the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to raise interest rates before the end of the year - a notable change compared to the expected interest rate reduction that strongly supported gold in the early 2026 period.
Mr. Simon-Peter Massabni - Head of Business Development at XS. com - said that gold is still facing the risk of further downward pressure in the short term if Middle East tensions continue to escalate.
Gold prices are currently maintained around the 4,500 USD/ounce mark, close to the lowest level recorded in May," he said.
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be the focus of the greatest risk in the global financial market.
On Monday, Iran's senior security agency announced the establishment of the "Persian Gulf Strait Management Agency" to coordinate operations in Hormuz, while Tehran continues to seek to control and collect tolls for transportation through this area.
Meanwhile, the negotiation process between the US and Iran is still stalled. President Donald Trump's latest statement that "time is running out" continues to strengthen cautious sentiment in the market.
Analysts believe that the current developments do not create too strong safe-haven buying power for gold as in previous tense periods. Instead, rising oil prices are causing inflation expectations, bond yields and interest rate forecasts to simultaneously rise, thereby putting back pressure on the precious metal.
Brent oil prices are currently maintained around 110.05 USD/barrel, while WTI oil is around 101.77 USD/barrel after rising to nearly 112 USD and 104 USD/barrel previously.
The global bond market continues to face strong selling pressure amid prolonged inflation concerns.
On the stock market, cautious sentiment also appeared in the first trading session of the week. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell nearly 2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (China) fell more than 1.6%, and European stocks simultaneously weakened. Germany's DAX index at one point fell more than 2%.
US stock futures also fell slightly as rising oil prices and bond yields put pressure on the previous upward momentum of technology and AI stocks.
This week, investors will monitor some US economic data such as the NAHB housing market index, TIC long-term investment capital flows and especially the minutes of the Fed meeting in April released on Wednesday to find more signals about monetary policy orientation.
Technically, analysts say that gold needs to overcome the resistance zone of 4,597 - 4,670 USD/ounce to improve the short-term trend, while the important support zone is currently around 4,538 - 4,500 USD/ounce.
For silver, the nearest resistance zone is defined around 78 - 78.71 USD/ounce, while short-term support is around 76.50 USD and 74.94 USD/ounce.
