From July 1, 2026, business households enter a period of stricter tax management when the 2025 Tax Administration Law activates the risk classification mechanism. Transaction data, electronic invoices and compliance history will be analyzed to rank each household according to the level of risk, creating fundamental changes in tax supervision for small business sectors. This is a strong shift to a data-driven tax management model, directly impacting millions of business households.
Business households enter the period of data-based tax supervision
The 2025 Tax Administration Law No. 108/2025/QH15 establishes a risk assessment mechanism for taxpayers based on analyzing compliance history, accuracy of declarations, consistency of data and operating scale. This is a major change compared to the previous period, when inspections were mainly based on annual plans or clear signs of violations.
According to the law, tax authorities are allowed to collect and synchronize data from many sources: electronic invoices, banking systems, electronic wallets, e-commerce platforms, periodic reports, customs and business registration agencies. From there, taxpayers are divided into three groups: low - medium - high risk. Households in the high group will be closely monitored, and may be required to explain before being refunded or confirmed tax obligations.
Notably, a part of Article 26 on electronic invoices and risk object management has taken effect from January 1, 2026, meaning business households begin to be subject to data monitoring right in the first months of the year.
Business household groups face high risk assessment
Although the risk classification system uses internal algorithms and criteria, legal basis and actual data show that some business household groups are highly likely to be assessed as risky.
First of all, there are cases where data does not match between declared revenue and transaction cash flow. The law allows tax authorities to compare electronic invoice data with money received through bank accounts or transaction data from e-commerce platforms (e-commerce platforms). Unusual revenue fluctuations or large differences between inflows and issued invoices are considered risk signs.
The next group is business households that are late in submitting dossiers, late in paying taxes or making invoices at the wrong time. Decree 310/2025/ND-CP amending Decree 125/2020 significantly increases penalties for these acts, and the history of administrative violations becomes an important criterion in risk scoring.
Households doing business online or receiving payments through e-wallets and digital transaction platforms are also subject to special monitoring according to Decree 117/2025/ND-CP. Transaction data from e-commerce platforms is automatically transmitted to tax authorities, so any deviation from standards between reports and reality is quickly detected.
Households with business information continuously changing such as location, changing occupations, stopping and then resuming operations without updating according to the provisions of Decree 168/2025/ND-CP are also considered risky because registration data is unstable.
High-risk groups face sharp increase in tax supervision
Being classified as a high risk group does not mean that business households have violations, but according to the 2025 Tax Administration Law, this is the basis for tax authorities to apply stronger management measures. Households in this group may be:
- Request explanation of revenue - expense data.
- Comparing invoices - bank transactions more often.
- Specialized tax inspection.
- Review data from previous years if any abnormal signs are detected.
The new law also puts electronic inspection into operation, allowing tax authorities to remotely inspect based on connected data without having to go directly to the grassroots level. This method helps detect deviations faster, while creating stronger compliance pressure on the force of business households, which is very diverse in scale.
However, the law still ensures the right to explanation and the right to provide documents of taxpayers. Standardizing cash flow, making invoices at the right time and monitoring periodic revenue is a key solution to avoid being classified as high-risk groups.
Tax management by data analysis helps tax authorities accurately identify abnormal signs, but at the same time sets higher requirements for data consistency for business households. When invoices, cash flow and registration information match, households will be classified as low-risk groups and enjoy a lighter monitoring mechanism.
From 2026, the tax exemption threshold of 500 million VND/year will officially be applied, making the transparency of revenue even more important. A small deviation in data can also change the determination of whether households are eligible for tax exemption or not. Transparency from the beginning will help business households avoid consequences such as being retroactively taxed, adjusted or put into risk according to the automatic data analysis system of the 2025 Tax Administration Law.
